65: Understanding the Complexities of the Current Canadian Economy with Beaton Rettich Waters' Scott Beaton

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back to the Kelowna Real Estate
Podcast.

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I'm your host, mortgage broker,
Taylor Atkinson.

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And I'm your real estate host,
Matt Glenn.

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Real estate agent host, I should
say, Glenn.

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Maybe I should start calling you
Bill because you highlighted Bill

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14, changes to the tenancy.

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Yeah.

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So Bill 14 was announced on April
2nd.

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I feel like not a lot of people
know about this.

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So it's changed to the tenancy
laws in BC and Taylor and I are

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just going to go through them
because I feel like we need to

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talk about this and not a lot of
people are about So it's this.

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changed to the tenancy laws in BC
and Taylor and I are just going to

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go through them because I feel
like we need to talk about this

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and not a lot of people are.

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So let's just go through them one

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by one.

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we will highlight this is not

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legal planning, tenancy advice.

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Don't hold us liable to anything,

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but this is important information
that, you know, specifically if

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you have an issue with tenancy, we
should dive into it further.

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Just call somebody that's
licensed.

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Yeah.

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are just our wild opinions.

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Well, no, they're not all our
opinions.

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We'll add our wild opinions after
we read what's happening.

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Yeah.

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Like the rest of our 65 shows,

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we've done just our opinions.

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Just throwing whatever opinion we

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have at the wall and seeing what
sticks.

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Yeah.

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Okay.

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Let's get into it.

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All right.

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Okay.

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Let's do it.

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So the first one they announced.

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So prohibiting landlord from

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charging additional rent for
additional occupants that are

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minors.

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This includes occupants who at the

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time of signing the agreement were
a minor and residing in the unit,

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but are no longer a minor.

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So then from Landlord BC, their

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comment is, this change has a
significant impact on the

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landlord's ability to cover the
costs that additional occupants in

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the rental unit represent, such as
utilities and wear and tear.

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So I personally didn't even know
you were allowed to just charge

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more rent if another tenant came
in.

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I didn't know you could do that.

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So I was reading into it more and

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I think if you put it in the
original tenancy, you used to be

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able to do it and now you're
allowed to do that anymore.

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I honestly, I think I'm okay with
this change.

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What do you that.

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Taylor?

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Yeah, I think you're still allowed
to do it.

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You have to have it in the
original agreement that you're

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increasing rent if there's another
occupant, but you just can't do it

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with minors now.

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Oh, yeah, that's right.

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Yeah.

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Which is totally reasonable.

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Like, yeah, I don't think anyone
would ever argue at this point.

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Yeah, was this news story a few
months ago in Vancouver where this

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couple had a baby and their
landlord raised the rent.

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I think it was $600 a month
because they had a baby.

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And like, I think that is just a
little crazy.

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And when crazy things like that
happen, we get rules like this

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announced.

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I would be interested to see the

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other side of that story.

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Like was rent at a thousand bucks

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a month for the last 15 years.

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And then they had a kid and like

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rent should be at 3000.

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Like, yeah, I don't know.

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I've just, it's hard to speculate
on one.

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Yeah.

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Right.

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But I agree.

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You shouldn't.

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It's true.

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Increase rent.

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Yeah.

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So, but honestly, I think this

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change got to make some kind of
rule, I guess, around this.

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So now the rule is just not
allowed at all.

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So that one is what it is.

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Yeah.

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All right.

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So here's the second rule.

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Increasing the amount of time a
landlord must occupy the rental

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unit after ending a tenancy for
personal occupancy from six months

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to 12 months.

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This will be retroactive, So,

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favorite word, to April 3rd, 2024.

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So as of like six weeks ago.

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So that landlord BC's comments
are, this means if a landlord ends

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a tenancy for personal occupancy
and does not occupy the unit for

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12 months, the tenant may file a
dispute for compensation.

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This additional compensation is up
to 12 months of rent.

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This is an interesting one.

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So I have clients who just lost to

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the RTB because they gave the
notice to their tenant that they

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were going to move into the place.

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And then they didn't re-rent it

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out, but they just weren't there
enough.

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And the previous tenants filed a
complaint and they won, but other

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people weren't using the unit
enough.

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So I think that they were
splitting their time between here

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and Alberta.

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So they were here like kind of

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half and half.

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That was not good enough.

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So they lost.

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And that was before this rule

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passed, bringing it to six months
instead of 12 Yeah.

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I mean, well, first of all, you
nailed it retroactive.

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I hate that.

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I don't think they should change

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the rules without people being
informed.

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Six months to 12 months.

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I don't think it really makes a

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difference.

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I see both sides of it.

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So I had a client, similar
situation, life circumstances,

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right?
They met their soon to be spouse.

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That spouse now didn't occupy that
after she evicted tenants and then

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moved out.

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And that actually showed up on the

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credit bureau because they lost to
the RTB.

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That showed up on the credit
bureau?

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Yeah.

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Because there was now a collection

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out for it because they lost the
dispute and didn't pay it right

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away.

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Oh my God.

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Really?
Yeah.

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It's the first I've seen.

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It's a pretty like wild

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circumstance to penalize somebody
that far when like a genuine, Hey,

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I found somebody I want to get
married with.

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I'm not going to live here
anymore.

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I'm going to move out and then you
lose so the six months to 12

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months like it's so ambiguous
because like so much can change in

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somebody's life in 12 months so
like i don't think you can just

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put a blanket cover over it but on
the other side i have had someone

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where they were basically forced
out being evicted because the

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landlord said they were going to
move back in and then instantly

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saw that come up on Facebook that
they're re-renting it for more

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money.

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So I do think there needs to be

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policing there.

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It's just, it's so individual.

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Like it's hard to say who's right
and who's wrong.

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Yeah.

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I understand the rule.

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Like the idea is that they don't
want you to just kick out the

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tenant who's not paying enough
rent and then get another tenant

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that's paying market rent.

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Right.

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So like, that's kind of what
they're trying to go after here.

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I'm just trying to think like,
what if you have a tenant that

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comes in for a few months and then
leaves?

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Are you under a time crunch to get
a new tenant?

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Because of like my story is they
weren't using it enough.

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So So like, that's kind of a,
yeah, that's a tricky one.

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All right.

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So the third one, prohibiting

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evictions for personal occupancy
and purpose-built rental buildings

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with five or more rental units.

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This will also be retroactive to

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April 3rd, 2024.

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And Landlord BC's note is, this

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means that the landlords or their
close family members of buildings

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with five or more units will not
be able to utilize the notice to

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end tenancy for landlord's
occupancy.

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We do not believe that this
measure is necessary and will seek

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data from the government used to
support the decision and seek its

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revocation.

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All right.

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So I didn't know how many people
this would affect until I talked

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to you.

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I don't think this rule is really,

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it's kind of a nothing burger,
like which landlord is going to

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move into their place.

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But Emily and I did this when we

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moved back from China because
legitimately we moved into this

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place for eight months while we
were renovating a bunch of the

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other units.

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That wasn't 12 months my god dude

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you're basically satan well this
was like six years ago so it was

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pre any of these you could also
evict people like renovations that

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were much more minor than they
have now yeah but yeah i guess

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this would have affected me well
this purpose-built rentals yours

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is a stratified building right
true yeah yeah yeah because i was

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wondering about if it's a
stratified building and you have

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more then it wouldn't make sense
because then they're all like

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individual units right so you'd
basically own 40 different then

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it's still the same yeah you would
have to give the adequate notice

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and actually move in there for 12
months yeah so i just i don't know

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how many people own multifamily
buildings that try and live there

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unless you're i don't don't
either.

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I think there's just a funny rule.

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Is this like another one where

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there was like one bad story and
now we have a new law forever from

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this?
Yeah.

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Why waste the time on it?
I agree.

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All right.

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Next point.

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Prohibiting landlords from giving
notice to end tenancy unless the

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requirements or circumstances
apply or if the landlord has a

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reasonable belief they are
applied.

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This responds to the problem where
a landlord issues frivolous

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notices to harass a tenant or
evict a tenant by yeah so i a

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tenant will still have to dispute
the notice, but they can also file

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a complaint with the RTB
Compliance and Enforcement Unit.

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While we support an end to
frivolous notices to end tenancy

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as a form of harassment, we feel
this needs clear guidelines as to

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what constitutes frivolous and
what standards are applied when

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considering if the requirements of
notice to end tenancy are met.

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So like, this seems like it's
already a rule.

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If you give a tenant bogus notice
of just basically to harass them,

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like obviously you weren't going
to win in the RTB before with

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that.

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But now I think that there's a

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penalty for just doing that to
people.

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Is that how you understand that It
is.

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Yeah.

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I think it's always been this

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rule, but yeah, it seems like
there would be a penalty against

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the landlord, which Yeah.

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Now they're just coming after you

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because you can have the RTPs
compliance and enforcement unit

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done, done, done coming for you.

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Right.

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So like, I think some people may
get stung by this.

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Yeah.

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That's fair.

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If they feel they need that.

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Yeah.

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that one I could see happening a
lot.

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I could see people just issuing
these tenants.

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But also, like, where is the line
between I haven't listened to this

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podcast, so I don't know all these
rules changes.

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So I'm just doing this right.

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So like, I guess there has to be a

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line of somewhere where I just
didn't know.

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But it does say or the landlord
has a reasonable belief that they

253
00:07:49,106 --> 00:07:49,420
applied.

254
00:07:49,420 --> 00:07:51,125
So you RTV is pretty reasonable to

255
00:07:51,125 --> 00:07:51,885
deal with.

256
00:07:51,785 --> 00:07:53,982
So yeah, so I'd be careful with

257
00:07:53,982 --> 00:07:54,530
that one.

258
00:07:54,530 --> 00:07:54,694
Yeah.

259
00:07:54,694 --> 00:07:57,760
Hey, if there's anyone from the
RTV, reach out, we'll have you

260
00:07:57,760 --> 00:07:58,180
show.

261
00:07:58,180 --> 00:07:58,390
Seriously.

262
00:07:58,490 --> 00:07:58,770
Yeah.

263
00:07:58,770 --> 00:07:59,230
All right.

264
00:07:59,330 --> 00:08:02,410
So these changes are coming into
effect in early summer and early

265
00:08:02,310 --> 00:08:03,857
summer is like a month away.

266
00:08:03,857 --> 00:08:05,356
So this is the biggest change that

267
00:08:05,356 --> 00:08:07,280
I just cannot believe more people
are not talking about.

268
00:08:07,267 --> 00:08:10,423
Increasing the amount of notice a
landlord must give a tenant when

269
00:08:10,423 --> 00:08:12,842
ending the tenancy for personal
occupancy from two months to four

270
00:08:12,842 --> 00:08:12,993
months.

271
00:08:12,993 --> 00:08:14,702
And then Landlord BC's note is,

272
00:08:14,695 --> 00:08:16,855
the increase in notice period is
intended to give tenants more time

273
00:08:16,855 --> 00:08:17,696
to find new accommodations.

274
00:08:17,696 --> 00:08:18,988
By doubling the notice period, a

275
00:08:18,988 --> 00:08:21,053
new layer of complexity has been
added to this process and

276
00:08:21,053 --> 00:08:24,164
landlords must plan much further
out when considering moving into

277
00:08:24,164 --> 00:08:30,065
their rental unit or selling the
property.

278
00:08:30,065 --> 00:08:31,406
We do not agree with the decision
by the government.

279
00:08:31,406 --> 00:08:33,129
In our experience, many tenants
dispute the notice and current RTB

280
00:08:33,421 --> 00:08:35,529
service standards easily add two
months to the notification period

281
00:08:35,529 --> 00:08:39,259
as a dispute winds its way through
the RTB hearing process.

282
00:08:39,259 --> 00:08:42,150
This allows additional time for
the impacted tenants to secure new

283
00:08:42,150 --> 00:08:42,405
housing.

284
00:08:42,405 --> 00:08:44,193
We are also concerned about the

285
00:08:44,193 --> 00:08:46,237
negative impacts to the broader
housing market.

286
00:08:46,237 --> 00:08:47,962
So this is the biggest one.

287
00:08:47,962 --> 00:08:49,942
First of all, how many buyers can

288
00:08:49,942 --> 00:08:53,828
wait for, well, it's actually
really five months to look to buy

289
00:08:53,828 --> 00:08:55,513
a place, right?
Like that's a long time.

290
00:08:55,513 --> 00:08:57,355
So we're in the middle of May.

291
00:08:57,355 --> 00:08:59,673
If you wanted to buy a place

292
00:08:59,673 --> 00:09:02,619
today, like after you offer, you
go through the two week subject

293
00:09:02,619 --> 00:09:04,545
removal, and then you put in the
notice.

294
00:09:04,545 --> 00:09:06,981
So we're in the middle of If May.

295
00:09:06,981 --> 00:09:09,020
you wanted to buy a place today,

296
00:09:09,380 --> 00:09:11,420
like after you offer, you go
through the two week subject

297
00:09:11,420 --> 00:09:13,846
removal and then you put in the
notice.

298
00:09:13,846 --> 00:09:17,648
So like if you did it today, we'd
be almost close to June.

299
00:09:17,648 --> 00:09:19,811
So then you have to wait.

300
00:09:19,811 --> 00:09:22,517
All of June is just a free month

301
00:09:22,517 --> 00:09:24,855
and they get July, August,
September, October, and you're

302
00:09:24,855 --> 00:09:25,888
moving in November 1st.

303
00:09:25,888 --> 00:09:28,008
If you are looking for a place

304
00:09:28,008 --> 00:09:28,280
right now.

305
00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:28,885
Yeah.

306
00:09:28,885 --> 00:09:32,096
So like not very many people can
do this.

307
00:09:31,996 --> 00:09:37,188
And now since we have a mortgage
broker on the show, how long is a

308
00:09:37,188 --> 00:09:38,878
pre-approval?
Like how long can you hold your

309
00:09:38,778 --> 00:09:40,656
pre-approval for?
Isn't it 120 max, 90 days?

310
00:09:40,656 --> 00:09:41,820
What is this, Taylor?
Yeah, usually 120.

311
00:09:41,712 --> 00:09:42,768
It's not always so much about the
pre-approval.

312
00:09:42,868 --> 00:09:44,716
Like if you had it under contract
and you weren't closing for, you

313
00:09:44,768 --> 00:09:45,530
know, four months, obviously it
would now be approved.

314
00:09:45,382 --> 00:09:46,189
You'd get a commitment letter from
a lender, but generally they have

315
00:09:46,183 --> 00:09:47,221
not an expiration date, but kind
of a ceiling on how long the

316
00:09:47,221 --> 00:09:48,366
approval will be good for because
lenders don't want to tie these

317
00:09:48,217 --> 00:09:49,131
things up for months and months
and months.

318
00:09:49,031 --> 00:09:50,245
Now you can do that.

319
00:09:50,345 --> 00:09:51,395
Generally they have a clause

320
00:09:51,395 --> 00:09:53,646
stating that they'll probably pull
credit or do some kind of new

321
00:09:53,646 --> 00:09:56,800
credit application within a 90 day
period of closing.

322
00:09:56,800 --> 00:10:00,372
And the risk there so you're firm
is, on okay, this you've removed

323
00:10:00,472 --> 00:10:02,103
contract, subjects, essentially
everything's broker you but

324
00:10:02,103 --> 00:10:03,913
complete, then they pull know,
credit again.

325
00:10:03,913 --> 00:10:07,492
what if your credit score goes
down or you Well, get a car loan?

326
00:10:07,492 --> 00:10:11,146
I know these are all like, Like,
you know, what was me problems,

327
00:10:11,146 --> 00:10:14,560
but things happen in life where
somebody has to change something

328
00:10:14,460 --> 00:10:15,020
financially.

329
00:10:15,020 --> 00:10:16,693
So now you're firm on this

330
00:10:16,693 --> 00:10:19,964
contract, you have to close, but
now that lender is not going to

331
00:10:19,964 --> 00:10:22,953
complete on this because something
changed in your financial history.

332
00:10:22,953 --> 00:10:24,490
It's just, it's too long of a
close.

333
00:10:24,490 --> 00:10:26,669
It's way too long of a close.

334
00:10:26,669 --> 00:10:28,357
Then you're not going to sell your

335
00:10:28,357 --> 00:10:28,575
house.

336
00:10:28,575 --> 00:10:29,962
You're going to list your house to

337
00:10:29,962 --> 00:10:33,398
sell, but you're not going to
accept a closing date for four

338
00:10:33,398 --> 00:10:33,749
months.

339
00:10:33,749 --> 00:10:35,456
Well, who's going to buy your

340
00:10:35,456 --> 00:10:37,177
house with a closing date for four
months.

341
00:10:37,077 --> 00:10:40,914
Well, who's going to buy your
house with a closing date of four

342
00:10:40,914 --> 00:10:42,875
months?
It's just going to slow It's going

343
00:10:42,875 --> 00:10:49,570
to be so hard to sell a tenanted
property.

344
00:10:49,538 --> 00:10:49,940
It's going to reduce the amount of
buyers that want to buy a tenanted

345
00:10:49,888 --> 00:10:53,889
property themselves by a ton.

346
00:10:53,885 --> 00:10:54,040
It's going to be only other

347
00:10:53,971 --> 00:10:59,844
investors that are just going to
keep the tenants there that are

348
00:10:59,800 --> 00:10:59,895
going to be interested in your
property.

349
00:10:59,848 --> 00:11:05,221
And that's only if the tenants are
good and also paying like the

350
00:11:05,121 --> 00:11:06,429
market rate or at least to it.

351
00:11:06,429 --> 00:11:08,084
I mean, unless you come up with a

352
00:11:08,084 --> 00:11:09,823
mutual agreement and tenancy where
you're like, hey, I'm going to pay

353
00:11:09,777 --> 00:11:12,412
you five grand and you're going to
move out in a month.

354
00:11:12,412 --> 00:11:12,512
Yeah.

355
00:11:12,512 --> 00:11:14,513
I think sellers are going to have

356
00:11:14,513 --> 00:11:14,905
started paying tenants.

357
00:11:15,005 --> 00:11:15,342
Yeah.

358
00:11:15,242 --> 00:11:16,632
But I guess the question is like,
why?

359
00:11:16,532 --> 00:11:17,542
The system works now.

360
00:11:17,542 --> 00:11:18,103
Like as is.

361
00:11:18,103 --> 00:11:18,440
Yeah.

362
00:11:18,700 --> 00:11:19,300
You know?

363
00:11:19,300 --> 00:11:19,628
It's amazing.

364
00:11:19,628 --> 00:11:20,992
Like we were already so tenant

365
00:11:20,992 --> 00:11:21,156
favored.

366
00:11:21,156 --> 00:11:22,610
And then you just add all these

367
00:11:22,610 --> 00:11:23,238
rules And in.

368
00:11:23,088 --> 00:11:23,536
like, it's just crazy.

369
00:11:23,536 --> 00:11:23,736
Yeah.

370
00:11:23,656 --> 00:11:24,164
You know, it's amazing.

371
00:11:24,164 --> 00:11:26,051
Like we were already so tenant
favored and then you just add all

372
00:11:26,051 --> 00:11:27,727
these rules in and like, it's just
crazy.

373
00:11:27,727 --> 00:11:30,573
I had this other guy, this was a
tenant.

374
00:11:30,573 --> 00:11:33,700
This was not a homeowner, not an
investor, but he was like, the

375
00:11:33,700 --> 00:11:35,302
tenancy laws are so in the tenant
favor.

376
00:11:35,302 --> 00:11:38,983
Why would I ever want to buy a
house when all the laws are so

377
00:11:38,983 --> 00:11:39,913
much favored towards the tenant,
right?

378
00:11:39,913 --> 00:11:41,720
It's almost like unmotivating to
turn yourself into a homeowner

379
00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:43,515
from a tenant because of this.

380
00:11:43,515 --> 00:11:44,903
I don't know if that's a view

381
00:11:44,903 --> 00:11:47,200
across the board, but I just
thought that was super interesting

382
00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:48,087
for him to say that.

383
00:11:48,087 --> 00:11:49,346
I obviously had not thought about

384
00:11:49,346 --> 00:11:49,491
that.

385
00:11:49,491 --> 00:11:51,187
So I think that is the biggest

386
00:11:51,187 --> 00:11:53,124
rule by far going from the two
months to the four months.

387
00:11:53,124 --> 00:11:54,245
And it's just not a tenable
situation.

388
00:11:54,245 --> 00:11:57,077
Like imagine you even have a house
where you have a mortgage helper.

389
00:11:57,074 --> 00:12:00,480
The person buying your house is
just going to have to keep that

390
00:12:00,620 --> 00:12:02,627
tenant there, right?
Because now that person can't sell

391
00:12:02,539 --> 00:12:03,464
their house for five or six
months.

392
00:12:03,376 --> 00:12:03,460
Yeah.

393
00:12:03,460 --> 00:12:04,201
Like if grandma wants to live in

394
00:12:04,285 --> 00:12:05,513
the basement or something like
that, or those situations that

395
00:12:05,413 --> 00:12:06,310
happen quite often, just not going
to work.

396
00:12:06,306 --> 00:12:07,355
So yeah, I think that's the
biggest one.

397
00:12:07,355 --> 00:12:07,858
All right.

398
00:12:07,858 --> 00:12:09,510
Next rule is increasing the amount

399
00:12:09,510 --> 00:12:13,183
of time a tenant has to dispute a
notice to end tenancy for personal

400
00:12:13,083 --> 00:12:14,409
occupancy from 15 to 30 days.

401
00:12:14,509 --> 00:12:15,976
I don't have a major problem with

402
00:12:15,976 --> 00:12:16,518
this one.

403
00:12:16,618 --> 00:12:17,408
What do you Taylor?

404
00:12:17,408 --> 00:12:18,163
Yeah, it's 15 days.

405
00:12:18,163 --> 00:12:18,918
What's the big deal?

406
00:12:18,918 --> 00:12:19,092
Yeah.

407
00:12:19,092 --> 00:12:20,834
And I feel like most people, if

408
00:12:20,834 --> 00:12:24,259
they're going to dispute it,
they're going to do it in day

409
00:12:24,259 --> 00:12:24,756
three.

410
00:12:24,756 --> 00:12:26,193
I guess people that are a little

411
00:12:26,193 --> 00:12:27,188
procrastination oriented might, I
don't know.

412
00:12:27,188 --> 00:12:27,740
All right.

413
00:12:27,740 --> 00:12:28,338
Next rule.

414
00:12:28,238 --> 00:12:30,313
Requiring landlords to use a web
portal on the RTB website, which

415
00:12:30,313 --> 00:12:32,160
is under development, to generate
notices to end tenancy for

416
00:12:32,074 --> 00:12:32,225
personal occupancy.

417
00:12:32,225 --> 00:12:33,858
So then the landlord VC's comment

418
00:12:33,858 --> 00:12:36,144
is, this means landlords will have
to enter all required information

419
00:12:36,244 --> 00:12:38,775
through the new web portal before
a notice is generated.

420
00:12:38,775 --> 00:12:40,869
This will help ensure that notices
are properly completed before

421
00:12:40,869 --> 00:12:43,351
they're given to tenants and help
landlords better understand when

422
00:12:43,351 --> 00:12:44,480
these notices need to end
tenancies are appropriate.

423
00:12:44,457 --> 00:12:46,560
tenants and help landlords better
understand when these notices need

424
00:12:46,537 --> 00:12:47,377
to end tendencies are appropriate.

425
00:12:47,377 --> 00:12:49,507
So I think this one opens a lot of

426
00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:51,647
questions like, so that notices
have to be approved before they

427
00:12:51,647 --> 00:12:52,497
can be presented.

428
00:12:52,597 --> 00:12:54,158
Like, are they going to know the

429
00:12:54,258 --> 00:12:56,166
whole situation?
Who approves these and is it

430
00:12:56,066 --> 00:12:58,662
quick?
this has kind of been in the works

431
00:12:58,662 --> 00:12:59,788
for a while, this one.

432
00:12:59,788 --> 00:13:01,267
I guess they're trying to protect,

433
00:13:01,267 --> 00:13:04,577
you know, people from bullying or,
you know, forcing somebody into

434
00:13:04,577 --> 00:13:07,006
something and not being fully
educated on it yeah i see that

435
00:13:07,305 --> 00:13:10,012
point i appreciate it but unless
they have the capacity to turn

436
00:13:10,012 --> 00:13:12,347
these things around within like 24
hours if this now takes weeks to

437
00:13:12,347 --> 00:13:14,906
do i don't agree with it there's
got to be some efficiency that's

438
00:13:14,906 --> 00:13:20,397
for it would it help the landlord
though like when you give a notice

439
00:13:20,397 --> 00:13:24,055
to end tenancy and it's approved
by the RTB and you hand it over,

440
00:13:24,155 --> 00:13:28,680
like it must help the landlord
when they go, if there's ever

441
00:13:28,680 --> 00:13:28,921
dispute.

442
00:13:28,921 --> 00:13:30,665
I think it help everybody, but

443
00:13:30,665 --> 00:13:34,515
it's just whether it takes two
months to get the approval or two

444
00:13:34,515 --> 00:13:35,838
days, you know?
Yeah, I agree.

445
00:13:35,838 --> 00:13:39,803
I think a system like this is
going to cost a lot of money and

446
00:13:39,803 --> 00:13:42,853
it's going to have a lot of
issues, but be willing to try

447
00:13:42,853 --> 00:13:45,563
Well, so like, let's go back to
our four month notice and tenancy.

448
00:13:45,561 --> 00:13:46,590
So today is the 16th.

449
00:13:46,590 --> 00:13:47,778
So we have a two week subject

450
00:13:47,778 --> 00:13:48,026
removal period.

451
00:13:48,016 --> 00:13:49,483
And then we go talk to the RTB

452
00:13:49,442 --> 00:13:49,600
after this.

453
00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:51,888
So I'm assuming like the buyer is

454
00:13:51,788 --> 00:13:55,378
going to have to talk to this web
portal to make sure that they're

455
00:13:55,378 --> 00:13:55,865
moving in.

456
00:13:56,169 --> 00:13:57,325
And then because they're not the

457
00:13:57,325 --> 00:14:00,365
landlord at this point, then the
seller will also have to talk to

458
00:14:00,465 --> 00:14:01,781
them to do this.

459
00:14:01,781 --> 00:14:04,172
I can't imagine it's going to be

460
00:14:04,172 --> 00:14:04,399
quick.

461
00:14:04,399 --> 00:14:06,735
So we are definitely now not going

462
00:14:06,735 --> 00:14:08,534
to be issuing this notice in May.

463
00:14:08,534 --> 00:14:10,620
It's definitely going to be in

464
00:14:10,620 --> 00:14:10,892
June.

465
00:14:10,892 --> 00:14:14,247
It's going to force everyone to do

466
00:14:14,247 --> 00:14:15,788
a mutual agreement and tenancy.

467
00:14:15,788 --> 00:14:17,148
It's the only way.

468
00:14:17,148 --> 00:14:17,329
Yeah.

469
00:14:17,329 --> 00:14:17,951
Honestly, I Yeah.

470
00:14:17,951 --> 00:14:20,922
Honestly, I think landlords are
going to just have to get out the

471
00:14:20,922 --> 00:14:21,028
checkbook.

472
00:14:21,028 --> 00:14:22,982
Five grand, 10 grand, just get out

473
00:14:22,982 --> 00:14:23,293
of here.

474
00:14:23,293 --> 00:14:23,666
Yeah.

475
00:14:23,666 --> 00:14:23,790
Yeah.

476
00:14:23,790 --> 00:14:24,412
Just crazy.

477
00:14:24,412 --> 00:14:27,523
Now you know there are going to be
some tenants that are going to try

478
00:14:27,523 --> 00:14:29,140
and manipulate that system a
little bit.

479
00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:29,355
Yeah.

480
00:14:29,355 --> 00:14:29,755
Yeah.

481
00:14:29,755 --> 00:14:30,542
Well, interesting.

482
00:14:30,442 --> 00:14:30,500
Yeah.

483
00:14:30,500 --> 00:14:32,160
Some good information in there.

484
00:14:32,160 --> 00:14:33,629
Today's show, we brought on Scott

485
00:14:33,629 --> 00:14:34,048
Beaton.

486
00:14:34,048 --> 00:14:35,512
You will notice there's probably a

487
00:14:35,612 --> 00:14:38,162
few too many baseball analogies,
but funny story, Scott and I

488
00:14:38,162 --> 00:14:39,470
played some baseball when we were
younger together.

489
00:14:39,470 --> 00:14:40,382
So hopefully you're a baseball
fan.

490
00:14:40,382 --> 00:14:42,579
But yeah, he is a partner at an
advisory firm that specializes in

491
00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:43,440
helping organizations tackle
transformation.

492
00:14:43,340 --> 00:14:45,300
So he's an accountant by trade,
but he is fascinated, obviously,

493
00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:46,729
with economic change.

494
00:14:46,729 --> 00:14:48,030
And the human aspect.

495
00:14:48,030 --> 00:14:49,600
He said that a lot of times.

496
00:14:49,780 --> 00:14:50,907
Yeah, which is pretty interesting.

497
00:14:50,907 --> 00:14:52,823
So some pretty fascinating stuff
he chats about.

498
00:14:52,823 --> 00:14:54,066
He's super active on LinkedIn.

499
00:14:54,066 --> 00:14:54,801
Give him a follow.

500
00:14:54,801 --> 00:14:55,988
He puts out some awesome content.

501
00:14:55,988 --> 00:14:57,260
And he's super active on linkedin

502
00:14:57,320 --> 00:15:00,953
give him a follow he puts out some
awesome content and you know he's

503
00:15:00,953 --> 00:15:02,720
been really diving into bank of
canada overnight rate

504
00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:04,468
announcements this year yeah so
tune in he has some pretty dialed

505
00:15:04,468 --> 00:15:08,103
in projections let's see if it's
correct over the next you know a

506
00:15:08,103 --> 00:15:10,337
couple announcements but yeah it
was fun episode talking to scott

507
00:15:10,337 --> 00:15:12,380
for sure and this episode like
every episode is sponsored by

508
00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:13,964
Century 21 Assurance Realty, the
best brokerage in Kelowna by far.

509
00:15:13,954 --> 00:15:15,292
My brokerage, Taylor's Weiss
brokerage, all of our friends

510
00:15:15,292 --> 00:15:16,040
brokerage, and your next
brokerage.

511
00:15:16,140 --> 00:15:17,666
Reach out to me, Max, Dean, talk
to us.

512
00:15:17,666 --> 00:15:19,265
It's a great place to be.

513
00:15:19,265 --> 00:15:19,610
It's awesome.

514
00:15:19,603 --> 00:15:19,990
Okay, guys.

515
00:15:19,990 --> 00:15:20,425
Enjoy the show.

516
00:15:20,425 --> 00:15:21,157
Enjoy the show.

517
00:15:21,150 --> 00:15:22,407
Welcome to the show, Scott Beaton.

518
00:15:22,407 --> 00:15:23,340
Thanks for coming on, buddy.

519
00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:25,523
Thanks for having me.

520
00:15:25,523 --> 00:15:25,818
Yeah.

521
00:15:25,718 --> 00:15:28,020
Well, we like to start our show

522
00:15:28,180 --> 00:15:29,942
with just you connecting with our
listener.

523
00:15:29,942 --> 00:15:31,906
Basically, what's your perfect
Friday look like?

524
00:15:31,906 --> 00:15:35,142
Work leading into the weekend,
kind of what gives you some energy

525
00:15:35,142 --> 00:15:38,622
and what do you do for work and
then into some fun?

526
00:15:38,622 --> 00:15:39,510
that's awesome.

527
00:15:39,410 --> 00:15:40,724
A perfect Friday is a productivity

528
00:15:40,724 --> 00:15:40,855
day.

529
00:15:40,855 --> 00:15:44,679
I'd say it's a nice cup of coffee

530
00:15:44,679 --> 00:15:49,040
to start probably sitting
somewhere near the window or get

531
00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:50,448
some sunset in.

532
00:15:50,348 --> 00:15:53,518
And I'd say usually at that point,

533
00:15:53,618 --> 00:15:56,846
trying to catch up on what's
happening in economic and business

534
00:15:56,846 --> 00:15:59,726
activity, what's changing, what
are the trends is, you know, it's

535
00:15:59,726 --> 00:16:00,870
been a busy week.

536
00:16:00,870 --> 00:16:01,992
Let's just see if I missed

537
00:16:01,892 --> 00:16:03,701
anything big and start to think
about what does that mean?

538
00:16:03,701 --> 00:16:05,943
And, but that's also a day where
I'm just going to get a lot of

539
00:16:05,943 --> 00:16:09,001
stuff done, get out, get some
exercise lots breaks, of breaks

540
00:16:09,001 --> 00:16:11,899
during the try to day, think, what
well, does that mean?

541
00:16:11,899 --> 00:16:17,133
But that's also a day where I'm
just going to get a lot of stuff

542
00:16:17,133 --> 00:16:20,831
get done, get some out, exercise
lots breaks, of breaks during the

543
00:16:20,831 --> 00:16:23,581
day, try to do something social,
usually with the family in the

544
00:16:23,581 --> 00:16:24,143
afternoon.

545
00:16:24,143 --> 00:16:26,269
But yeah, I would say in that

546
00:16:26,269 --> 00:16:29,284
perfect world, no meetings, just
getting it done, the deep

547
00:16:29,384 --> 00:16:31,708
processing, complex problems,
stuff that I'm looking at for kind

548
00:16:31,808 --> 00:16:32,498
of long-term.

549
00:16:32,498 --> 00:16:32,656
Yeah.

550
00:16:32,656 --> 00:16:36,042
I mean, in addition to that, then
can you give our listener kind of

551
00:16:35,942 --> 00:16:39,360
a high level?
What is your position, the company

552
00:16:39,345 --> 00:16:44,848
you work for?
What do you guys kind of

553
00:16:44,748 --> 00:16:45,847
specialize in?
Yeah, that's great.

554
00:16:45,747 --> 00:16:47,540
Actually, we're a specialty
advisory firm.

555
00:16:48,060 --> 00:16:49,519
So I'm a CPA by trade.

556
00:16:49,519 --> 00:16:50,738
Don't hold it against me.

557
00:16:50,738 --> 00:16:56,209
Did enough time in audit, you
know, and actually for a long time

558
00:16:56,209 --> 00:16:58,132
moved into the advisory world.

559
00:16:58,132 --> 00:16:59,402
So we've got a small firm.

560
00:16:59,402 --> 00:17:00,038
I'm a partner there.

561
00:17:00,038 --> 00:17:01,096
We really do a lot of

562
00:17:01,096 --> 00:17:01,520
organizational change.

563
00:17:01,825 --> 00:17:03,534
So companies looking to grow,

564
00:17:03,534 --> 00:17:05,313
looking to transform, get new
technology, improve their

565
00:17:05,313 --> 00:17:05,376
business.

566
00:17:05,376 --> 00:17:07,718
And we just do a whole host of

567
00:17:07,718 --> 00:17:10,381
projects around kind of the
finance systems process and human

568
00:17:10,281 --> 00:17:10,681
element there.

569
00:17:10,681 --> 00:17:12,550
And for us, it's all about

570
00:17:12,550 --> 00:17:12,684
behavior.

571
00:17:12,684 --> 00:17:14,762
How do we connect behavior to the

572
00:17:14,762 --> 00:17:16,688
system?
A lot of people look at a company

573
00:17:16,688 --> 00:17:18,632
or look at any organization and
say, you know, these people aren't

574
00:17:18,612 --> 00:17:19,154
doing the right thing.

575
00:17:19,154 --> 00:17:20,327
We always have to ask the

576
00:17:20,327 --> 00:17:21,959
question, what system did we build
around them?

577
00:17:21,959 --> 00:17:23,753
Are we incentivizing them to do
the right things or do we push it

578
00:17:23,753 --> 00:17:25,228
that way?
So we get to do some really cool

579
00:17:25,051 --> 00:17:25,340
work that way.

580
00:17:25,209 --> 00:17:25,712
And then a lot of it really ties

581
00:17:25,556 --> 00:17:26,048
back to within which environment
is the company operating?

582
00:17:25,904 --> 00:17:26,518
So I spent a lot of time
personally diving into that bigger

583
00:17:26,353 --> 00:17:26,867
economic picture, what's happening
in metals prices and interest

584
00:17:26,733 --> 00:17:29,023
rates and different input factors
that are going to have an impact

585
00:17:29,023 --> 00:17:30,858
on how well business performs.

586
00:17:30,958 --> 00:17:31,597
So we're setting that.

587
00:17:31,597 --> 00:17:31,703
Interesting.

588
00:17:31,703 --> 00:17:33,418
Are the companies mostly based in

589
00:17:33,418 --> 00:17:34,670
BC, Kelowna, across Canada or
globally?

590
00:17:34,770 --> 00:17:36,280
yeah, we're global.

591
00:17:36,900 --> 00:17:38,136
We've got clients from Victoria to

592
00:17:38,136 --> 00:17:38,342
Iqaluit.

593
00:17:38,342 --> 00:17:41,065
We've got a partner heading out to

594
00:17:41,065 --> 00:17:41,560
Winnipeg here.

595
00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:42,979
He's been working with a firm out

596
00:17:42,967 --> 00:17:44,304
there for a little while.

597
00:17:44,304 --> 00:17:46,320
He's going to spend a week on site

598
00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:48,156
as they get their new system going
live.

599
00:17:48,156 --> 00:17:51,642
And we're with a big firm for the
better part of nine years.

600
00:17:51,642 --> 00:17:54,568
And after we left there, a lot of
people were looking to join us

601
00:17:54,668 --> 00:17:54,944
again.

602
00:17:54,844 --> 00:17:55,904
The first client that signed up

603
00:17:55,899 --> 00:17:57,460
with me is actually out of Nevada.

604
00:17:57,580 --> 00:17:57,947
Oh, wow.

605
00:17:57,947 --> 00:18:00,589
So do you work mostly with private
bit of nonprofit as well.

606
00:18:00,589 --> 00:18:03,450
And some First Nations and other
government related organizations

607
00:18:03,450 --> 00:18:06,965
that we do a little bit of work
with as well.

608
00:18:06,965 --> 00:18:07,540
Awesome.

609
00:18:08,120 --> 00:18:09,332
So I guess what's the process look

610
00:18:09,332 --> 00:18:11,584
like?
They hire you, do you guys kind of

611
00:18:11,584 --> 00:18:14,600
come on, you audit them and then
produce a report and say, you

612
00:18:15,100 --> 00:18:15,800
should do this step.

613
00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:17,250
What's the timeframe for, I mean,

614
00:18:17,250 --> 00:18:19,857
are you with these clients for six
months to a year or just like an

615
00:18:19,957 --> 00:18:21,279
indefinite amount?
answer, it depends, but really

616
00:18:21,279 --> 00:18:23,820
we're not a, you know, come in,
analyze, drop a report kind of

617
00:18:23,820 --> 00:18:23,913
outfit.

618
00:18:23,913 --> 00:18:25,569
Our first step is really to

619
00:18:25,569 --> 00:18:26,323
understand what's the You problem.

620
00:18:26,323 --> 00:18:27,250
you know,, come know, drop in,

621
00:18:27,250 --> 00:18:28,295
analyze, a report kind of Our
first outfit.

622
00:18:28,295 --> 00:18:29,890
step is really to understand
what's the problem.

623
00:18:29,890 --> 00:18:32,441
You know, a lot of people come in
and they say, here's some things

624
00:18:32,441 --> 00:18:32,917
we're seeing.

625
00:18:32,917 --> 00:18:33,774
What they're describing is

626
00:18:33,774 --> 00:18:35,187
symptoms, right?
They're describing symptoms of a

627
00:18:35,187 --> 00:18:35,412
problem.

628
00:18:35,412 --> 00:18:37,835
So we'll spend the first part of

629
00:18:37,835 --> 00:18:40,780
our time together trying to
understand what's the root cause,

630
00:18:40,780 --> 00:18:41,801
what's really going on here.

631
00:18:41,801 --> 00:18:43,220
When it comes to systems, you

632
00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:47,212
know, a really common scenario,
hey, we implemented a new

633
00:18:47,212 --> 00:18:49,607
enterprise resource planning
system and we're getting nothing

634
00:18:49,607 --> 00:18:51,613
out of it.

635
00:18:51,513 --> 00:18:51,854
Okay.

636
00:18:51,954 --> 00:18:55,400
So they're like, well, I think we
got the wrong system.

637
00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:56,244
No, that's a symptom.

638
00:18:56,244 --> 00:18:57,652
So we actually start diving into,

639
00:18:57,652 --> 00:18:59,200
you know, what was the training
and rollout, the change

640
00:18:59,260 --> 00:19:01,032
management, the adoption of the
solution, how was it designed?

641
00:19:01,032 --> 00:19:02,315
What's the process change we
needed?

642
00:19:02,315 --> 00:19:03,720
And we'll go back to that
beginning.

643
00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:06,059
Sometimes we look at it, we're
going back into all these other

644
00:19:06,059 --> 00:19:08,398
human factors, and then maybe we
come back to the technology at the

645
00:19:08,498 --> 00:19:10,210
end and make a few tweaks.

646
00:19:10,210 --> 00:19:11,915
So that would be one example.

647
00:19:11,915 --> 00:19:16,751
And the same sort of thing, like a
company wants to go on a growth

648
00:19:16,751 --> 00:19:19,912
curve and they just don't know
which market they should be

649
00:19:19,912 --> 00:19:20,548
targeting.

650
00:19:20,548 --> 00:19:21,428
So we'll come in and understand

651
00:19:21,428 --> 00:19:23,582
where they're being successful,
what really aligns for them and

652
00:19:23,582 --> 00:19:26,694
where in their process, where in
their strategy are they kind of

653
00:19:26,694 --> 00:19:26,965
misaligned.

654
00:19:26,965 --> 00:19:28,385
But where we're different there is

655
00:19:28,385 --> 00:19:31,117
we don't just stop at saying, hey,
here's a bunch of things.

656
00:19:31,217 --> 00:19:34,567
We like to work with clients to
actually go after and tackle these

657
00:19:34,567 --> 00:19:34,785
things.

658
00:19:34,785 --> 00:19:36,379
So I would say everybody that we

659
00:19:36,379 --> 00:19:39,861
work with, we've worked with for a
long time.

660
00:19:39,861 --> 00:19:41,728
It won't be necessarily one job.

661
00:19:41,628 --> 00:19:43,543
It's usually that we solve one

662
00:19:43,543 --> 00:19:44,981
thing and it's like, okay, now
there's this next thing.

663
00:19:44,949 --> 00:19:45,654
Can you help us with that?
And here's the next thing.

664
00:19:45,460 --> 00:19:45,780
We want to be a part of the
journey.

665
00:19:45,700 --> 00:19:46,868
We don't want them to be dependent
on us.

666
00:19:46,967 --> 00:19:48,195
We want to help them build the
internal capacity.

667
00:19:48,156 --> 00:19:50,074
But we want to be a part of the
journey.

668
00:19:49,974 --> 00:19:52,808
We don't want them to be dependent
on We want us.

669
00:19:52,808 --> 00:19:54,076
to help them build the internal
capacity.

670
00:19:54,076 --> 00:19:56,898
But we find that these companies
we work with, they've got, you

671
00:19:56,898 --> 00:19:58,998
know, constantly evolving, you
know, growth and talent and

672
00:19:58,998 --> 00:19:59,109
things.

673
00:19:59,109 --> 00:20:00,038
Yeah, that's awesome.

674
00:19:59,938 --> 00:20:02,744
I mean, I guess a huge variable is
the human component.

675
00:20:02,744 --> 00:20:06,373
Pretty tough coming from like a
CPA background to now trying to

676
00:20:06,473 --> 00:20:06,950
figure out.

677
00:20:06,850 --> 00:20:06,970
out.

678
00:20:06,970 --> 00:20:09,120
I've been thinking that the whole
time you've been talking.

679
00:20:09,220 --> 00:20:12,767
I'm like, man, a CPA is talking
about all these kinds of things

680
00:20:12,867 --> 00:20:16,346
that's not an point out one of our
partners clemens reddick he is

681
00:20:16,346 --> 00:20:18,135
actually a professor at the
university of victoria in

682
00:20:18,135 --> 00:20:19,468
organizational behavior leadership
he's a change management

683
00:20:19,468 --> 00:20:21,802
professional he's really the root
of that part of our business but

684
00:20:21,702 --> 00:20:24,406
we all share common beliefs and
values so it's like a venn diagram

685
00:20:24,406 --> 00:20:26,346
he knows enough about finance to
be dangerous and i know enough

686
00:20:26,340 --> 00:20:28,506
about human psychology to be So,
you in the middle there we

687
00:20:28,506 --> 00:20:30,874
overlap, but that's how we bring a
good package to the table because

688
00:20:30,874 --> 00:20:33,220
you can't just spreadsheet your
way, you know, through a problem.

689
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:34,525
It just doesn't work that way.

690
00:20:34,505 --> 00:20:36,741
There's humans on the other end of

691
00:20:36,641 --> 00:20:37,162
that Yeah.

692
00:20:37,162 --> 00:20:39,040
It's kind of like Matt and I, you

693
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,902
know, he's the guy that people
love to talk to, you know, I'm

694
00:20:41,902 --> 00:20:43,009
more of the abrasive one.

695
00:20:43,009 --> 00:20:43,209
Okay.

696
00:20:43,208 --> 00:20:45,901
Well, let's dive into it then from
an economic point of view, like,

697
00:20:45,901 --> 00:20:47,388
where are we?
Like, are we doomsday?

698
00:20:47,388 --> 00:20:50,183
Are we in a recession?
Are we out of a recession?

699
00:20:50,183 --> 00:20:52,584
Where are rates heading?
Like, I'm going to just like broad

700
00:20:52,584 --> 00:20:54,966
spectrum, where do you want to
start on this?

701
00:20:54,966 --> 00:20:57,540
But like, there's so much media
around this the past couple of

702
00:20:57,540 --> 00:20:57,867
years.

703
00:20:57,867 --> 00:20:59,220
So what do you find interesting

704
00:20:59,207 --> 00:21:00,556
and what do you want to talk
today?

705
00:21:00,542 --> 00:21:02,637
Oh, so many things, so many
things, you know, hot button issue

706
00:21:02,637 --> 00:21:04,812
for me lately has been bank of
Canada policy rates and the impact

707
00:21:04,668 --> 00:21:05,247
that has on the economy.

708
00:21:05,073 --> 00:21:05,277
Yes, we've heard of it.

709
00:21:05,255 --> 00:21:05,556
You would know all about it,
right?

710
00:21:05,534 --> 00:21:06,311
I mean, it has a big impact on the
ability to afford a place to live,

711
00:21:06,302 --> 00:21:08,553
it has a big impact on the ability
to right?

712
00:21:08,553 --> 00:21:12,174
To get a mortgage, to buy a home,
but it's got deeper implications.

713
00:21:12,174 --> 00:21:15,189
And this is something I've been
paying attention to for a while

714
00:21:15,189 --> 00:21:18,982
because, you know, when inflation
started to kick up in 2022, the

715
00:21:18,982 --> 00:21:21,720
shock was extra money that came
out of COVID spending, not enough

716
00:21:21,610 --> 00:21:22,347
supply because supply chains
slowed down, right?

717
00:21:22,237 --> 00:21:25,051
You know, you were going to ship a
container, maybe it was $8,000 to

718
00:21:25,051 --> 00:21:28,458
send it from, you know, China to
the West Coast here.

719
00:21:28,458 --> 00:21:31,875
And all of a sudden, it's $32,000,
you know, during the peak there

720
00:21:31,875 --> 00:21:33,856
where there just wasn't enough
room.

721
00:21:33,856 --> 00:21:38,025
Well, we didn't have enough supply
of a lot of things.

722
00:21:38,025 --> 00:21:40,078
And that drove inflation because
there's extra money on the

723
00:21:40,078 --> 00:21:41,954
sidelines and not enough product
coming in.

724
00:21:41,954 --> 00:21:45,402
And of course, the Bank of Canada
at the point in time, they might

725
00:21:45,402 --> 00:21:47,378
have been a little slow to react
to that.

726
00:21:47,378 --> 00:21:50,903
But there's also only so much that
their policy rate can do to slow

727
00:21:50,903 --> 00:21:51,237
down spending.

728
00:21:51,237 --> 00:21:53,193
And so that was kind of where I

729
00:21:53,193 --> 00:21:55,017
really started paying attention to
what was going on.

730
00:21:55,113 --> 00:21:57,507
And then on the tail end of it,
they're sending out these

731
00:21:57,507 --> 00:21:57,963
inflation numbers.

732
00:21:57,963 --> 00:21:59,843
And every time I'm looking at

733
00:21:59,843 --> 00:22:02,020
these inflation numbers, they're
like, oh, it's over 3%.

734
00:22:02,020 --> 00:22:04,454
We still need to keep the rates
up, rates up.

735
00:22:04,354 --> 00:22:06,788
And it's like, OK, but hang on a
second.

736
00:22:06,688 --> 00:22:08,404
What's in that number?
Oh, mortgage interest cost.

737
00:22:08,404 --> 00:22:09,877
Let's take that out.

738
00:22:09,777 --> 00:22:10,595
What's left?

739
00:22:10,595 --> 00:22:11,700
Oh, it's like 2.1%.

740
00:22:11,700 --> 00:22:12,569
It's 2%.

741
00:22:12,569 --> 00:22:14,622
It's right in the middle of their
target range.

742
00:22:14,622 --> 00:22:17,291
What causes mortgage interest rate
costs to go up?

743
00:22:17,191 --> 00:22:17,900
A bank policy rate.

744
00:22:17,900 --> 00:22:19,874
And so, you know, I went and did a

745
00:22:19,874 --> 00:22:23,766
little bit of research on this and
just trying to figure out like,

746
00:22:23,766 --> 00:22:26,220
what are they using?
They're not using that full

747
00:22:26,220 --> 00:22:26,813
indicator.

748
00:22:26,813 --> 00:22:27,784
They come up with their own

749
00:22:27,784 --> 00:22:28,000
methods.

750
00:22:28,270 --> 00:22:29,557
And so I recalculated their

751
00:22:29,457 --> 00:22:29,565
methods.

752
00:22:29,565 --> 00:22:31,177
And I said, well, what would

753
00:22:31,177 --> 00:22:33,320
happen here if you just ignored
the mortgage interest costs?

754
00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:35,558
Sweden doesn't use that, right?
Sweden, when they're making their

755
00:22:35,658 --> 00:22:39,174
policy rates, they ignore the
shelter costs because they know

756
00:22:39,174 --> 00:22:41,769
the shelter costs are driven by
the policy rates.

757
00:22:41,769 --> 00:22:44,552
So don't drive your policy rate
decision on exchanges and filter

758
00:22:44,552 --> 00:22:44,703
costs.

759
00:22:44,703 --> 00:22:42,592
It's a circle that doesn't make

760
00:22:42,592 --> 00:22:42,969
any sense.

761
00:22:42,969 --> 00:22:45,853
So they don't do that.

762
00:22:45,853 --> 00:22:47,848
Well, I said, what would happen if
we took that out?

763
00:22:47,948 --> 00:22:49,520
And I did some analysis.

764
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:50,738
And it turns out it's really

765
00:22:50,738 --> 00:22:50,788
tough.

766
00:22:50,782 --> 00:22:52,260
I found some economists at the

767
00:22:52,261 --> 00:22:53,504
National Bank had done work on
this.

768
00:22:53,404 --> 00:22:55,745
And they're like, yeah, you can do
it.

769
00:22:55,745 --> 00:22:59,056
But the Bank of Canada, it's a
black box.

770
00:22:59,056 --> 00:23:00,720
They do all this seasonal
adjustment.

771
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:02,719
They change the numbers in ways we
can't really recreate.

772
00:23:02,619 --> 00:23:03,132
We can guess.

773
00:23:03,132 --> 00:23:05,398
So it turns out they were on the

774
00:23:05,398 --> 00:23:06,452
same track I was.

775
00:23:06,552 --> 00:23:08,335
And I guess the short version of

776
00:23:08,435 --> 00:23:11,266
the story is, you know, they're
using different metrics over time

777
00:23:11,266 --> 00:23:13,766
that have kind of supported the
decision they made, rather than

778
00:23:13,766 --> 00:23:16,588
use the data to support changing
the decision and start to bring

779
00:23:16,588 --> 00:23:16,961
rates down.

780
00:23:16,961 --> 00:23:19,255
I think there's a bit of a fear

781
00:23:19,155 --> 00:23:21,820
that goes on that if they start to
bring rates down too early, that

782
00:23:21,820 --> 00:23:24,620
might lead to more surging in
spending and cause inflation to

783
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:25,941
rear its ugly head again.

784
00:23:25,941 --> 00:23:27,931
I was trying to think like, what

785
00:23:27,931 --> 00:23:30,326
are the, again, coming back to
that psychology background, we

786
00:23:30,326 --> 00:23:33,501
talk about, okay, well, if I'm the
Bank of Canada governor, why would

787
00:23:33,401 --> 00:23:35,640
I want to do that?
You know, it's supposed to be an

788
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:36,354
independent body.

789
00:23:36,454 --> 00:23:37,884
The feds, you know, the government

790
00:23:37,884 --> 00:23:39,487
can't put pressure on them.

791
00:23:39,587 --> 00:23:40,583
Like, what are they into?

792
00:23:40,483 --> 00:23:42,528
And I'm thinking, well, I don't
know, maybe they just don't want

793
00:23:42,528 --> 00:23:46,402
to show up at the next event full
of economists and be the Bank of

794
00:23:46,402 --> 00:23:49,158
Canada governor who let inflation
rear its ugly head.

795
00:23:49,158 --> 00:23:53,209
Like they'd rather be the one who
maybe pushed us into a bit of a

796
00:23:53,209 --> 00:23:58,761
recession than the one who let
inflation turn out to be like the

797
00:23:58,761 --> 00:24:00,316
80s all over again.

798
00:24:00,216 --> 00:24:00,990
I don't know.

799
00:24:00,984 --> 00:24:01,184
Right.

800
00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:01,863
So it's hard to understand.

801
00:24:01,863 --> 00:24:03,488
Going through the reports, there
was a lot of contradictory

802
00:24:03,488 --> 00:24:03,620
evidence.

803
00:24:03,620 --> 00:24:05,400
So anyway, rates are a big deal.

804
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:07,160
Implications, it's really hitting
people on spending.

805
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:09,281
And I don't necessarily mean
consumers yet, although we might

806
00:24:09,281 --> 00:24:11,002
be seeing a little bit of that in
the data.

807
00:24:11,002 --> 00:24:12,620
The big thing is business
investment has fallen big time

808
00:24:12,700 --> 00:24:14,319
because businesses need to borrow
to invest.

809
00:24:14,219 --> 00:24:16,274
And we're seeing that in real
estate investment.

810
00:24:16,274 --> 00:24:18,763
state investment in BC overall
from February 2022 to February

811
00:24:18,763 --> 00:24:21,260
2024, it's down 18% in dollars
invested if you're looking at

812
00:24:21,260 --> 00:24:21,860
residential alone.

813
00:24:21,860 --> 00:24:24,140
So if we've got a supply problem

814
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:26,616
in housing, this isn't is that
just purchasing or are you talking

815
00:24:26,616 --> 00:24:27,287
like construction projects?
Construction projects.

816
00:24:27,387 --> 00:24:27,645
Yeah.

817
00:24:27,545 --> 00:24:27,752
Okay.

818
00:24:27,752 --> 00:24:28,010
Interesting.

819
00:24:28,010 --> 00:24:28,320
Yeah.

820
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:30,545
Do you think that if you were in
the position of Bank of Canada

821
00:24:30,545 --> 00:24:32,386
governor, would you have done an
earlier cut then?

822
00:24:32,386 --> 00:24:33,356
Hindsight's easy right now.

823
00:24:33,356 --> 00:24:34,115
We're still on that.

824
00:24:34,215 --> 00:24:34,506
Okay.

825
00:24:34,406 --> 00:24:36,316
So this is going to come out a

826
00:24:36,216 --> 00:24:38,208
couple of weeks before the next
rate announcement in June.

827
00:24:38,108 --> 00:24:40,497
What do you think is going to
happen then?

828
00:24:40,497 --> 00:24:42,755
What's your prediction?
off, there's a lot of reasons why

829
00:24:42,755 --> 00:24:44,892
I wouldn't be the Bank of Canada
governor, but probably a little

830
00:24:44,892 --> 00:24:46,410
bit too vocal for that kind of
role sometimes.

831
00:24:46,410 --> 00:24:50,094
But anyhow, you know, if I were
looking at it, I was looking at

832
00:24:50,094 --> 00:24:53,021
the indicators back in March and
April saying, you know, they

833
00:24:53,021 --> 00:24:55,894
should be doing a quarter point
ease off around that point in

834
00:24:55,893 --> 00:24:56,008
time.

835
00:24:56,008 --> 00:24:57,668
I But anyhow, you the waiting it

836
00:24:57,668 --> 00:25:00,086
out, I think that's the point in
time where you could argue holding

837
00:25:00,086 --> 00:25:02,596
the rates constant through the end
of 2023 for sure.

838
00:25:02,596 --> 00:25:05,890
But by the time we got to March,
the evidence was pretty clear.

839
00:25:05,978 --> 00:25:06,960
We were in the target range
consistently.

840
00:25:07,060 --> 00:25:10,016
And so now we're at the risk
because when they make the change,

841
00:25:10,016 --> 00:25:12,099
it takes months for that to work
its way through.

842
00:25:12,099 --> 00:25:14,898
I would have said, yeah, March and
April, those would have been the

843
00:25:14,894 --> 00:25:15,286
times.

844
00:25:15,286 --> 00:25:16,905
And you can see that when I pulled

845
00:25:17,005 --> 00:25:19,240
up some data, I put a post on
LinkedIn about this.

846
00:25:19,212 --> 00:25:21,476
You can see the average rate of
new mortgages going out right now

847
00:25:21,448 --> 00:25:22,489
over 6% across all mortgage types.

848
00:25:22,489 --> 00:25:23,410
But the average mortgage that's

849
00:25:23,410 --> 00:25:24,432
outstanding is still under four.

850
00:25:24,432 --> 00:25:25,608
It was about 3.75, 3.8.

851
00:25:25,608 --> 00:25:28,691
And that slope is going up and
starting to catch up to the new

852
00:25:28,691 --> 00:25:29,667
mortgage that's going out.

853
00:25:29,667 --> 00:25:30,988
So even if they bring it down

854
00:25:30,988 --> 00:25:33,423
0.25, 0.5, 0.75, mortgage rates
are still going to be higher.

855
00:25:33,423 --> 00:25:36,474
They're still going to be climbing
on average for what's totally

856
00:25:36,462 --> 00:25:37,260
outstanding, the impact.

857
00:25:37,540 --> 00:25:37,740
point.

858
00:25:37,738 --> 00:25:40,266
It hasn't been felt right?
yet, The full impact is going to

859
00:25:40,366 --> 00:25:44,168
be felt even if we ease off.

860
00:25:44,068 --> 00:25:45,781
Back to the forecast.

861
00:25:45,781 --> 00:25:50,472
I think right now the odds are,
you know, the market's pegged in

862
00:25:50,472 --> 00:25:53,104
about a 50-50 chance that it's
either June or July, right?

863
00:25:53,004 --> 00:25:55,982
Each one of those is about a 50-50
chance.

864
00:25:55,982 --> 00:25:58,216
you are an economist, aren't you?
you?

865
00:25:58,216 --> 00:26:00,822
What, the ambiguity?
I'm just looking at market data.

866
00:26:00,822 --> 00:26:03,503
The markets are betting 50-50
chance.

867
00:26:03,503 --> 00:26:08,668
So really right now, the odds that
we don't get a cut in June or July

868
00:26:08,668 --> 00:26:09,832
are just above 20%.

869
00:26:09,832 --> 00:26:11,817
So really almost an 80% chance

870
00:26:11,817 --> 00:26:14,448
we're going to get at least one
cut.

871
00:26:15,207 --> 00:26:20,216
I doubt we're going to get two in
June and July, but we'll probably

872
00:26:20,216 --> 00:26:22,192
get at The one.

873
00:26:22,092 --> 00:26:23,774
You think like if they start the

874
00:26:23,774 --> 00:26:26,610
cuts, they won't continue?
They'll maybe do one and then stop

875
00:26:26,610 --> 00:26:28,086
and then wait another couple
months?

876
00:26:28,086 --> 00:26:29,931
could be the case.

877
00:26:30,031 --> 00:26:32,031
I have a feeling that despite

878
00:26:31,931 --> 00:26:33,886
everything that I'm looking at in
the data saying, you know, they've

879
00:26:33,886 --> 00:26:37,047
needed to start sooner and maybe
ease off a little bit faster.

880
00:26:37,047 --> 00:26:39,962
I think they've shown consistently
that they're willing to put

881
00:26:39,862 --> 00:26:42,008
pressure on the economy if it
means avoiding the risk of

882
00:26:42,008 --> 00:26:42,240
inflation.

883
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:44,430
Maybe one cut in June and July,

884
00:26:44,430 --> 00:26:46,353
and maybe they do one more in the
fall.

885
00:26:46,353 --> 00:26:48,369
And that might be it for the year.

886
00:26:48,354 --> 00:26:48,677
Interesting.

887
00:26:48,677 --> 00:26:48,769
Yeah.

888
00:26:48,869 --> 00:26:49,646
So what about tying the interest

889
00:26:49,646 --> 00:26:52,462
rate to the American Fed?
Do we have to be the same as them?

890
00:26:52,462 --> 00:26:54,462
Or what's your opinion on that?
don't have to be the same.

891
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:55,523
The impact is on the dollar,
right?

892
00:26:55,623 --> 00:26:58,519
The US dollar right now is hot and
it's strong because their rates

893
00:26:58,519 --> 00:26:59,143
are high.

894
00:26:59,143 --> 00:27:01,141
It's always a nice safe haven in

895
00:27:01,141 --> 00:27:02,820
uncertainty for other countries,
but investors like that dollar

896
00:27:02,820 --> 00:27:04,420
when it's paying out the rates
it's paying.

897
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:07,687
So there is something there, but
we have to remember at the same

898
00:27:07,687 --> 00:27:10,562
time when the US dollar is strong,
that makes Canadian exports more

899
00:27:10,562 --> 00:27:11,411
palatable, right?
And as we high.

900
00:27:11,411 --> 00:27:13,800
more, that means people are buying
Canadian dollars to make those

901
00:27:13,940 --> 00:27:14,186
purchases.

902
00:27:14,186 --> 00:27:15,416
I don't know where that lands.

903
00:27:15,416 --> 00:27:17,336
We can't get too far apart from
the Americans, but they have a

904
00:27:17,336 --> 00:27:17,680
different economic situation.

905
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:19,756
Our unemployment rate in Canada is

906
00:27:19,756 --> 00:27:20,525
at 6.2%.

907
00:27:20,525 --> 00:27:22,293
Adjusted to the American metrics,

908
00:27:22,293 --> 00:27:24,010
it's about 5.1% and theirs is
3.9%.

909
00:27:24,010 --> 00:27:28,828
So unemployment is higher in
Canada than it is in the U.S.,

910
00:27:28,828 --> 00:27:31,436
even if you use the same
unemployment rates.

911
00:27:31,336 --> 00:27:32,547
Their economy is stronger.

912
00:27:32,548 --> 00:27:33,589
Their purchasing is stronger.

913
00:27:33,589 --> 00:27:34,760
Their business investment is
stronger, their purchasing is

914
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:35,837
stronger, their business
investment is still stronger.

915
00:27:35,837 --> 00:27:36,540
Canada is not there.

916
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,600
So if we just follow the same path

917
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:43,837
as them, we are likely to push
things into a bit of a recession.

918
00:27:43,837 --> 00:27:45,080
I'm optimistic.

919
00:27:46,209 --> 00:27:48,600
You know, they're still saying,

920
00:27:48,558 --> 00:27:50,964
you know, BC's economy might grow
by 0.5% in 2024 and get back to

921
00:27:50,873 --> 00:27:51,693
normal at about 1.5% in 2025.

922
00:27:51,693 --> 00:27:53,513
But, you know, anything can happen

923
00:27:53,513 --> 00:27:54,039
in between.

924
00:27:54,039 --> 00:27:55,500
You know, it's funny to circle

925
00:27:55,500 --> 00:27:58,839
back a few minutes ago talking
about the overnight policy change.

926
00:27:58,939 --> 00:28:02,388
We do talk in the industry like,
oh, as soon as they get one cut,

927
00:28:02,487 --> 00:28:05,736
like as soon as they show that
confidence back.

928
00:28:05,736 --> 00:28:05,994
Psychological.

929
00:28:05,994 --> 00:28:07,931
The market's going to start to

930
00:28:07,931 --> 00:28:11,425
take off, but it doesn't do
anything in terms of approval.

931
00:28:11,425 --> 00:28:14,343
I haven't really given a variable
product to any clients unless they

932
00:28:14,343 --> 00:28:17,955
wanted it and could be qualified
for it because we have the stress

933
00:28:17,955 --> 00:28:19,347
test, right?
So like for listeners, most people

934
00:28:19,347 --> 00:28:22,414
are going in fixed products right
now because they're two to two and

935
00:28:22,414 --> 00:28:24,566
a half percent cheaper than a
variable rate mortgage, depending

936
00:28:24,566 --> 00:28:26,432
if it's insured, not insured,
rental, whatever.

937
00:28:26,432 --> 00:28:28,762
So what is the intent right now?
Obviously, the Bank of Canada

938
00:28:28,762 --> 00:28:30,846
wants to stop spending, reduce
inflation, but they're not really

939
00:28:30,846 --> 00:28:33,640
stopping purchasing from an
economic point of view, maybe on a

940
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:35,717
mindset, confidence, but they're
really just hurting, like you

941
00:28:35,717 --> 00:28:37,367
said, construction financing,
small businesses, because a lot of

942
00:28:37,367 --> 00:28:40,957
those loans are based on an
overnight rate policy.

943
00:28:40,957 --> 00:28:43,744
So the kind of difference there,
do you think they're achieving

944
00:28:43,744 --> 00:28:46,188
anything by maintaining that
policy slightly higher in terms of

945
00:28:46,188 --> 00:28:48,200
a residential I sector?
you hit the nail on the head,

946
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:49,420
which is it's psychological.

947
00:28:49,407 --> 00:28:50,340
They're trying to send a message

948
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:52,414
by not making that move.

949
00:28:52,414 --> 00:28:54,083
And once they make the first

950
00:28:54,083 --> 00:28:56,153
quarter point move, they recognize
that the market consumers, the

951
00:28:56,153 --> 00:28:57,700
first quarter point they move,
recognize that the market

952
00:28:57,993 --> 00:29:00,092
consumers, people going to buy
homes, they might see that as a

953
00:29:00,192 --> 00:29:02,390
signal that things are going to
get better and start spending.

954
00:29:02,390 --> 00:29:05,718
And I think that's what the Bank
of Canada is fearing is that

955
00:29:05,718 --> 00:29:08,924
inflation is, yes, there's an
economic aspect to inflation, but

956
00:29:08,924 --> 00:29:11,590
a good chunk of it is just
millions of people making

957
00:29:11,490 --> 00:29:13,387
independent decisions based on
what they believe is going to

958
00:29:13,387 --> 00:29:13,820
happen.

959
00:29:13,820 --> 00:29:15,293
And, you know, you can go back

960
00:29:15,293 --> 00:29:19,473
hundreds of years to like the
tulip craze when people started

961
00:29:19,473 --> 00:29:21,803
buying and flipping tulips,
believe it or not, if you haven't

962
00:29:21,803 --> 00:29:24,912
heard that one yet, they're buying
and flipping tulips because tulips

963
00:29:24,912 --> 00:29:26,300
were the thing until the tulip
bubble, right?

964
00:29:26,300 --> 00:29:28,075
I think that was in the 1700s,
right?

965
00:29:28,075 --> 00:29:32,480
So then you get the tech bubble,
you get, you know, housing bubbles

966
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:34,995
that have happened in the past.

967
00:29:34,995 --> 00:29:35,681
That's psychology.

968
00:29:35,681 --> 00:29:37,017
That's the psychology of the
masses.

969
00:29:37,017 --> 00:29:40,064
And I think that's what the bank
is really trying to do is just

970
00:29:40,064 --> 00:29:41,528
send a message because you're
right.

971
00:29:41,528 --> 00:29:45,161
If you're looking at mortgage
rates right now, when I talk about

972
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:47,197
those numbers, a lot of that's
because there's the short-term and

973
00:29:47,197 --> 00:29:49,464
variable products in there, but
the fixed products are based on

974
00:29:49,464 --> 00:29:51,944
the bond markets and the bond
markets have priced in rates

975
00:29:51,944 --> 00:29:52,342
coming down.

976
00:29:52,342 --> 00:29:54,232
And if the bond markets priced in

977
00:29:54,132 --> 00:29:59,529
rates coming down in the future,
you know, they're going to be at a

978
00:29:59,529 --> 00:29:59,935
lower rate.

979
00:29:59,935 --> 00:30:01,218
Looking right now, you know, the

980
00:30:01,218 --> 00:30:05,875
implied overnight rate from the
Bank of Canada, it looks like it's

981
00:30:05,875 --> 00:30:07,460
a gentle slope.

982
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:09,484
It used to be a steep slope when I

983
00:30:09,484 --> 00:30:13,516
was looking at this months it like
a gentle slope from the 5% it's at

984
00:30:13,616 --> 00:30:16,451
today down to about three and a
half by the middle of 2026 or 3.3%

985
00:30:16,451 --> 00:30:20,490
by the end of 2026, as the Bank of
Canada's overnight rate.

986
00:30:20,490 --> 00:30:22,903
And so the bond markets have that
priced in already.

987
00:30:22,903 --> 00:30:26,645
If you're looking at a five-year
term, you're looking beyond that

988
00:30:26,645 --> 00:30:27,318
forecast window.

989
00:30:27,318 --> 00:30:29,202
And the bond markets are going to

990
00:30:29,202 --> 00:30:32,133
tell you something different than
what the Bank of Canada is telling

991
00:30:32,133 --> 00:30:32,333
you.

992
00:30:32,325 --> 00:30:34,151
So the Bank of Canada can only do

993
00:30:34,151 --> 00:30:36,750
so much to influence the opinion
of Yeah, we were talking about

994
00:30:36,750 --> 00:30:39,291
that with Brendan Augmentson a
little bit too.

995
00:30:39,191 --> 00:30:43,355
And it's like, fixed rates are
kind of where they're at for the

996
00:30:43,355 --> 00:30:45,719
next two, two and a half years.

997
00:30:45,719 --> 00:30:47,944
The variable or the overnight rate

998
00:30:48,044 --> 00:30:51,949
has to come down substantially to
reduce that gap.

999
00:30:51,949 --> 00:30:58,439
So if we So if we get a drop in
the Bank of Canada, the fixed

1000
00:30:58,339 --> 00:31:02,864
rates are not going to change at I
don't know that they don't change

1001
00:31:02,864 --> 00:31:03,443
at all.

1002
00:31:03,443 --> 00:31:05,671
I think it's that the bond market

1003
00:31:05,671 --> 00:31:07,457
is already priced in this steady
decline.

1004
00:31:07,457 --> 00:31:12,800
So if they cut faster than that,
bond rates are going to get

1005
00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:15,440
impacted, mortgage rates will get
impacted.

1006
00:31:16,010 --> 00:31:19,214
If they cut slower than that,
we're going to see that play out

1007
00:31:19,214 --> 00:31:20,481
in mortgage rates and bond rates,
right?

1008
00:31:20,481 --> 00:31:22,541
The bond market is just a
collection of investors making

1009
00:31:22,541 --> 00:31:24,698
decisions about where they can
stick their money to get the best

1010
00:31:24,685 --> 00:31:25,120
rate of return over which time
horizon.

1011
00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:28,086
And they're looking at the
variable rate just as anybody else

1012
00:31:28,086 --> 00:31:29,600
is, and they're all making the
same bets.

1013
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:32,392
So it'll, like I said, that curve
now is quite narrow.

1014
00:31:32,392 --> 00:31:34,956
We're talking about, you know,
1.7% change over what looks like,

1015
00:31:34,956 --> 00:31:39,382
you know, this time horizon is
over two years of a time horizon,

1016
00:31:39,382 --> 00:31:40,389
almost a three-year time horizon.

1017
00:31:40,389 --> 00:31:43,016
When I was looking at this six

1018
00:31:43,016 --> 00:31:45,709
months ago, it was about a 3% drop
over that.

1019
00:31:45,809 --> 00:31:48,942
So, you know, the markets at the
time thought the rates were going

1020
00:31:48,942 --> 00:31:52,360
to come down way further and way
faster than they do now.

1021
00:31:52,260 --> 00:31:52,598
Yeah.

1022
00:31:52,598 --> 00:31:53,566
I mean, God, everyone's been wrong

1023
00:31:53,566 --> 00:31:55,731
for the last two and a half years,
hey?

1024
00:31:55,731 --> 00:31:59,633
is it part of the reason because
the economy just seems to just not

1025
00:31:59,633 --> 00:32:01,532
be falling apart with these high
rates that they're just keeping

1026
00:32:01,532 --> 00:32:03,892
them here and seeing how long they
can ride out?

1027
00:32:03,892 --> 00:32:05,030
Yeah, there is resilience for
sure.

1028
00:32:05,130 --> 00:32:07,252
You know, there's resilience in
the market.

1029
00:32:07,252 --> 00:32:08,003
I don't know.

1030
00:32:07,903 --> 00:32:09,312
I mean, when it comes down to

1031
00:32:09,312 --> 00:32:11,060
economics and, you know, not to
discredit economists, but it's

1032
00:32:11,060 --> 00:32:14,156
like, you're trying to build a
mathematical model on something

1033
00:32:14,156 --> 00:32:15,120
that is just so complex.

1034
00:32:15,117 --> 00:32:16,337
You could never think of anyways.

1035
00:32:16,337 --> 00:32:18,985
know, so economists are brilliant,
but nobody's good at predicting

1036
00:32:18,985 --> 00:32:20,012
what's going to happen tomorrow.

1037
00:32:20,012 --> 00:32:21,363
We just aren't because there's a

1038
00:32:21,363 --> 00:32:24,365
hundred things we never would have
thought of that happened in the

1039
00:32:24,265 --> 00:32:25,697
last year that had an impact.

1040
00:32:25,697 --> 00:32:26,672
You just don't know.

1041
00:32:26,672 --> 00:32:26,786
Yeah.

1042
00:32:26,786 --> 00:32:28,620
I guess the last four or five

1043
00:32:28,620 --> 00:32:30,685
years have been a prime example of
another statement, right?

1044
00:32:30,785 --> 00:32:33,600
When you're looking at making life
choices, whether you're going to

1045
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:35,880
invest in a property or whether
you're investing in a business or

1046
00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:38,565
whether within a business, you're
going to expand to a market or

1047
00:32:38,968 --> 00:32:42,350
not, whatever it is that you're
choosing to do in life, you've got

1048
00:32:42,350 --> 00:32:46,088
to make those decisions, not based
on what you think is going to

1049
00:32:46,088 --> 00:32:48,885
happen tomorrow, but based on how
resilient you are to anything

1050
00:32:48,885 --> 00:32:49,829
happening tomorrow.

1051
00:32:49,729 --> 00:32:50,874
We don't ever really know.

1052
00:32:50,874 --> 00:32:55,030
We We can only just pretend and we
can draw nice graphs and we can

1053
00:32:55,030 --> 00:32:58,152
make ourselves feel warm and fuzzy
with a lot of mathematics.

1054
00:32:58,152 --> 00:32:59,781
I can't even draw nice graphs, so.

1055
00:32:59,765 --> 00:33:00,647
Well, there you go.

1056
00:33:00,647 --> 00:33:03,836
And then tomorrow comes and it
just, you know, I think it was,

1057
00:33:03,836 --> 00:33:07,357
was it Mike Tyson?
Everybody's got a plan until I

1058
00:33:07,357 --> 00:33:08,772
punch them in the face.

1059
00:33:08,772 --> 00:33:09,664
Like, that's life.

1060
00:33:09,664 --> 00:33:12,196
So when when you're making a
decision like that, it's not about

1061
00:33:12,196 --> 00:33:15,460
will rates go this way or that
way, or will the economy do this

1062
00:33:15,460 --> 00:33:17,867
thing or that thing?
It's can I tolerate it no matter

1063
00:33:17,867 --> 00:33:18,391
what happens?
Right.

1064
00:33:18,391 --> 00:33:18,799
Can I find a way Yeah.

1065
00:33:18,799 --> 00:33:19,744
Two things that may or may not

1066
00:33:19,743 --> 00:33:20,339
have surprised you.

1067
00:33:20,339 --> 00:33:21,482
I'm interested to hear your take.

1068
00:33:21,482 --> 00:33:23,899
I think it was like productivity
and unemployment.

1069
00:33:23,899 --> 00:33:26,051
The data on both of those right
now are pretty outstanding.

1070
00:33:26,051 --> 00:33:29,175
Were you kind of shocked when you
saw that initial data pretty

1071
00:33:29,175 --> 00:33:31,938
outstanding were you kind of
shocked when you saw that initial

1072
00:33:31,938 --> 00:33:36,317
data or is it just kind of a bit
of fluff is it like oh we're okay

1073
00:33:36,317 --> 00:33:38,685
with six percent unemployment how
severe are we with those two

1074
00:33:38,685 --> 00:33:41,667
sectors you know unemployment
we've got to look at over a longer

1075
00:33:41,667 --> 00:33:44,312
time frame if we're looking at
bc's i said canada's at 6.2 bc's

1076
00:33:44,312 --> 00:33:48,004
now at 5.1 but if you looked at it
last month, it was showing 5.8%.

1077
00:33:48,004 --> 00:33:50,735
So there's going to be some
short-term bounces in the numbers

1078
00:33:50,835 --> 00:33:54,960
that we just kind of have to look
at it over a longer time horizon,

1079
00:33:55,060 --> 00:33:56,703
understand productivity, same sort
of thing.

1080
00:33:56,703 --> 00:33:59,680
There will be blips of really
strong productivity and really

1081
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:00,005
weak productivity.

1082
00:34:00,005 --> 00:34:01,575
And we've got to look at that

1083
00:34:01,575 --> 00:34:03,740
long-term trend, which is, you
know, Canada has actually been

1084
00:34:03,740 --> 00:34:06,145
behind a lot of other countries
like ours in productivity over

1085
00:34:06,146 --> 00:34:07,094
quite a while.

1086
00:34:06,995 --> 00:34:08,905
I would say some of that comes

1087
00:34:08,905 --> 00:34:10,478
back to investment and business
investment.

1088
00:34:10,478 --> 00:34:12,764
When we're not investing in the
right projects, our productivity

1089
00:34:12,764 --> 00:34:14,304
is going to go down.

1090
00:34:14,405 --> 00:34:16,031
It's going to take more labor to

1091
00:34:16,031 --> 00:34:18,607
get something done in that
environment than if we spent the

1092
00:34:18,607 --> 00:34:21,541
money to get the right stuff built
in the first place.

1093
00:34:21,541 --> 00:34:24,358
And so I wouldn't say that I'm
ever too surprised over short-term

1094
00:34:24,358 --> 00:34:24,726
data.

1095
00:34:24,726 --> 00:34:26,356
I try to look at the long term

1096
00:34:26,356 --> 00:34:28,039
trend and see what's really
happening here.

1097
00:34:28,039 --> 00:34:31,493
And then at that level, you got to
get industry specific too, because

1098
00:34:31,393 --> 00:34:32,435
every industry is facing different
balances.

1099
00:34:32,435 --> 00:34:34,467
So what is the goal for
unemployment?

1100
00:34:34,367 --> 00:34:36,444
What's the level that we want to
see?

1101
00:34:36,344 --> 00:34:39,833
Generally, I think in the past,
being in around that 5.5% mark has

1102
00:34:39,833 --> 00:34:40,770
been somewhat normal.

1103
00:34:40,770 --> 00:34:45,433
It was down a lot lower for a

1104
00:34:45,433 --> 00:34:45,696
while.

1105
00:34:45,795 --> 00:34:48,701
And you see that coming out in

1106
00:34:48,701 --> 00:34:51,658
increases in wages and labor was
not terrible, but it's less about

1107
00:34:51,658 --> 00:34:54,731
where it is and more about where
it's trending and what does that

1108
00:34:54,731 --> 00:34:54,972
mean.

1109
00:34:54,972 --> 00:34:56,960
Because if we do start to see a

1110
00:34:57,540 --> 00:34:59,296
big spike, that and that's
sustained for a bit, that's going

1111
00:34:59,296 --> 00:34:59,798
to impact spending.

1112
00:34:59,798 --> 00:35:04,322
That's going to drive different

1113
00:35:04,322 --> 00:35:05,718
investment decisions for
businesses.

1114
00:35:05,718 --> 00:35:09,280
Everybody starts to pull back and
you do get into a vicious cycle

1115
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:11,420
where just like inflation, a
recession is as much psychological

1116
00:35:11,420 --> 00:35:12,343
as it is economic.

1117
00:35:12,343 --> 00:35:13,266
It's everybody deciding now is the

1118
00:35:13,266 --> 00:35:13,937
time not to spend.

1119
00:35:13,937 --> 00:35:15,062
They cut jobs, they cut back,

1120
00:35:15,062 --> 00:35:18,117
which then in turn feeds that To
kind of throw a bit of a curveball

1121
00:35:18,117 --> 00:35:21,551
at you, obviously recent budget
was, you know, kind of outlined

1122
00:35:21,551 --> 00:35:22,811
six, seven weeks ago.

1123
00:35:22,811 --> 00:35:25,680
Do you feel there's a lot of

1124
00:35:24,229 --> 00:35:27,467
things in there that are also
impacting, I guess, unemployment

1125
00:35:27,467 --> 00:35:29,510
and investment into these sectors?
I mean, we're talking about

1126
00:35:29,510 --> 00:35:30,088
residential or business
investment.

1127
00:35:30,088 --> 00:35:31,980
Obviously the overnight policy has
an effect on that.

1128
00:35:31,980 --> 00:35:35,640
But with, let's just say, capital
gains, a lot of things like that

1129
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:37,096
are not supporting entrepreneurs
or small businesses or just

1130
00:35:37,196 --> 00:35:37,600
investment in Canada.

1131
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:39,155
Why would somebody come to Canada

1132
00:35:39,135 --> 00:35:41,204
to invest in a business
opportunity here when the taxes

1133
00:35:41,204 --> 00:35:43,512
are so high?
Can you maybe talk a little bit

1134
00:35:43,612 --> 00:35:45,587
about the budget if there's
anything you like or dislike in

1135
00:35:45,587 --> 00:35:46,621
there?
I say it's a curveball.

1136
00:35:46,621 --> 00:35:49,660
Topic of mine for Topic of mine
for the last month, Yeah, topic of

1137
00:35:49,660 --> 00:35:51,739
mine for a lot of people.

1138
00:35:51,739 --> 00:35:54,263
Well, you know, first off, I would

1139
00:35:54,263 --> 00:35:55,997
say Canada is still a good place
to invest.

1140
00:35:55,997 --> 00:35:57,418
Yeah, we've got a lot of stability
here.

1141
00:35:57,418 --> 00:36:00,955
You know, we've got a great
country for businesses to come and

1142
00:36:00,955 --> 00:36:01,786
spend in.

1143
00:36:01,786 --> 00:36:04,362
And the dollar actually does help

1144
00:36:04,362 --> 00:36:04,971
a lot for American businesses.

1145
00:36:04,937 --> 00:36:05,202
I see a lot of them setting up

1146
00:36:05,168 --> 00:36:05,240
invest.

1147
00:36:05,190 --> 00:36:05,240
Yeah, Canada.

1148
00:36:05,240 --> 00:36:06,177
It works for them.

1149
00:36:06,177 --> 00:36:07,850
But when it comes to tax policy,

1150
00:36:07,850 --> 00:36:10,260
and this is actually one of my
biggest issues with the Bank of

1151
00:36:10,260 --> 00:36:14,227
Canada, actually isn't what their
policy rate is and has done.

1152
00:36:14,227 --> 00:36:18,591
And while I disagree with it, I'm
also not a Bank of Canada

1153
00:36:18,591 --> 00:36:18,858
governor.

1154
00:36:18,858 --> 00:36:20,128
I'm not an economist.

1155
00:36:20,128 --> 00:36:20,596
So that's fine.

1156
00:36:20,596 --> 00:36:22,377
What bothers me the most is that

1157
00:36:22,377 --> 00:36:25,559
when they say one thing and do
another, and they do that

1158
00:36:25,559 --> 00:36:28,992
consistently, or they write a lot
of contradictory things, it tells

1159
00:36:28,992 --> 00:36:31,513
me they're trying to sell a story,
not tell us the truth of what

1160
00:36:31,513 --> 00:36:32,135
they're really thinking.

1161
00:36:32,135 --> 00:36:34,681
And I would say the same thing

1162
00:36:34,681 --> 00:36:35,641
about politics in general.

1163
00:36:35,641 --> 00:36:37,900
So when I look at that budget,

1164
00:36:37,900 --> 00:36:40,242
half of gains tax, that's been
something that accountants have

1165
00:36:40,242 --> 00:36:42,751
been paying attention to for
years, that that might happen.

1166
00:36:42,751 --> 00:36:46,680
It's been signaled since the
government came in years ago that

1167
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:48,084
that change might happen.

1168
00:36:48,184 --> 00:36:49,423
So I don't think anybody's overly

1169
00:36:49,423 --> 00:36:51,018
surprised that it finally did
happen.

1170
00:36:51,018 --> 00:36:55,605
But the way that it happens is
always the thing that really irks

1171
00:36:55,605 --> 00:36:56,469
us.

1172
00:36:56,469 --> 00:36:57,260
It's not uniformly applicable.

1173
00:36:57,260 --> 00:36:58,536
They put loopholes into it.

1174
00:36:58,536 --> 00:36:59,149
It's unnecessarily complicating

1175
00:36:59,149 --> 00:37:01,434
the tax act, right?
We don't need to complicate the

1176
00:37:01,434 --> 00:37:01,880
tax act.

1177
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:02,624
It's a massive text.

1178
00:37:02,624 --> 00:37:04,497
It's way thicker than it needs to
be.

1179
00:37:04,397 --> 00:37:06,686
And every government just makes it
thicker and thicker and thicker.

1180
00:37:06,686 --> 00:37:08,860
They could have just changed the
inclusion rate, but no, they

1181
00:37:08,860 --> 00:37:11,546
changed the inclusion rate and
then added a minimum threshold for

1182
00:37:11,546 --> 00:37:14,005
which it applies and added certain
exemptions and all these different

1183
00:37:13,905 --> 00:37:14,269
conditions.

1184
00:37:14,269 --> 00:37:15,831
And that's where the tax

1185
00:37:15,831 --> 00:37:17,350
complexity creates work for
accountants.

1186
00:37:17,350 --> 00:37:20,595
I would point out there's a
shortage of CPAs, so that's not

1187
00:37:20,595 --> 00:37:20,860
helping.

1188
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:22,853
That's not good for business

1189
00:37:22,953 --> 00:37:23,332
investment.

1190
00:37:23,232 --> 00:37:25,129
It's not good for anybody, really.

1191
00:37:25,129 --> 00:37:26,834
Simplify the tax code.

1192
00:37:26,734 --> 00:37:27,449
That's good for everybody.

1193
00:37:27,449 --> 00:37:30,098
Now, how you want to distribute
that between different groups of

1194
00:37:30,098 --> 00:37:31,100
people, that's politics.

1195
00:37:31,100 --> 00:37:34,795
And I don't love the short time

1196
00:37:34,695 --> 00:37:37,151
window that they've given
businesses to plan for this.

1197
00:37:37,151 --> 00:37:39,004
That's going to have impacts.

1198
00:37:39,004 --> 00:37:40,355
They announced this during tax

1199
00:37:40,255 --> 00:37:40,693
season.

1200
00:37:40,693 --> 00:37:41,694
So anybody who's doing, you know,

1201
00:37:41,694 --> 00:37:43,764
accountants doing corporate tax
and personal tax, they're like,

1202
00:37:43,764 --> 00:37:46,356
they're already up to their ears
in doing their tax returns.

1203
00:37:46,356 --> 00:37:51,371
And it's like, oh, and then we're
going to have less than two months

1204
00:37:51,371 --> 00:37:54,761
to do all the tax planning for
every single client who might have

1205
00:37:54,761 --> 00:37:56,055
to deal with this.

1206
00:37:56,055 --> 00:37:56,179
Great.

1207
00:37:56,179 --> 00:37:56,425
Thanks, Feds.

1208
00:37:56,425 --> 00:37:58,873
And this was after they scrapped-

1209
00:37:58,873 --> 00:37:59,455
Bear Trust Agreement.

1210
00:37:59,455 --> 00:38:01,585
Yeah, the Bear Trust Agreement at

1211
00:38:01,585 --> 00:38:04,035
the last minute or on the day of.

1212
00:38:04,494 --> 00:38:05,566
On the day of, right?

1213
00:38:05,566 --> 00:38:09,801
I mean, I think we all know it's
politically driven, but the way

1214
00:38:09,701 --> 00:38:13,776
they're selling it is like it's
only going to affect 0.13% of

1215
00:38:13,776 --> 00:38:13,862
people.

1216
00:38:13,862 --> 00:38:16,015
And it's going to be a revenue

1217
00:38:16,015 --> 00:38:19,976
stream and help middle class
people, which is just obviously

1218
00:38:19,976 --> 00:38:21,724
not the effect of it.

1219
00:38:21,724 --> 00:38:22,995
It's not true.

1220
00:38:22,995 --> 00:38:24,461
You're right.

1221
00:38:24,361 --> 00:38:26,517
That's part of my beef.

1222
00:38:26,517 --> 00:38:26,661
Yeah.

1223
00:38:26,661 --> 00:38:29,205
Kim Moody did a quick video on it

1224
00:38:29,105 --> 00:38:30,040
as well.

1225
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:32,181
And one of his last points, which

1226
00:38:32,181 --> 00:38:36,854
I thought was really good, like
Justin Trudeau said, it's not

1227
00:38:36,954 --> 00:38:38,773
going to affect all these people.

1228
00:38:38,773 --> 00:38:41,155
But his point was, hey, there are

1229
00:38:41,155 --> 00:38:43,456
like massive pension funds that
are investing and they're getting

1230
00:38:43,456 --> 00:38:44,620
a return on money.

1231
00:38:44,620 --> 00:38:46,190
And then they're paying out to

1232
00:38:46,190 --> 00:38:48,706
these, you people that are on
know, a And they will pension.

1233
00:38:48,706 --> 00:38:50,303
now be affected capital gains are
investing and they're getting a

1234
00:38:50,303 --> 00:38:53,123
return on money and then they're
paying out to these people that

1235
00:38:53,023 --> 00:38:55,778
are on a pension and they will now
be affected capital gains that

1236
00:38:55,778 --> 00:38:57,608
they are receiving as a pension
fund.

1237
00:38:57,608 --> 00:38:59,907
So it's way more broad than they
lay it out to be.

1238
00:38:59,908 --> 00:39:02,248
I also the thing that it's not
inflation adjusted.

1239
00:39:02,348 --> 00:39:06,254
So like 250 grand and then 20
years from now, even if you have a

1240
00:39:06,254 --> 00:38:56,975
big gain, inflation adjusted is
actually not gain.

1241
00:38:56,875 --> 00:39:09,537
And you're paying money on that as
well.

1242
00:39:09,537 --> 00:39:11,576
I thought that was a super
interesting point of view to read

1243
00:39:11,576 --> 00:39:11,667
that.

1244
00:39:11,667 --> 00:39:12,549
that no, that's right.

1245
00:39:12,532 --> 00:39:13,924
That's one piece of it.

1246
00:39:13,924 --> 00:39:15,679
And I'd say that sort of bothers

1247
00:39:15,679 --> 00:39:16,707
me because again, it's political.

1248
00:39:16,707 --> 00:39:18,302
It's trying to sell a message and

1249
00:39:18,302 --> 00:39:22,169
every government from every party
is always trying to sell whatever

1250
00:39:22,269 --> 00:39:23,897
message it is they're delivering.

1251
00:39:23,897 --> 00:39:25,428
Saying that it only affects 1.13%

1252
00:39:25,428 --> 00:39:28,242
of people is like, okay, if you
define effects as individuals

1253
00:39:28,142 --> 00:39:29,522
only, not individuals via
corporations, like small business

1254
00:39:29,622 --> 00:39:31,246
owners, because small business
owners are all going to be

1255
00:39:31,346 --> 00:39:31,912
impacted by it.

1256
00:39:31,912 --> 00:39:33,091
And if you then, yes, ignore

1257
00:39:33,091 --> 00:39:34,960
anybody who invests in anything
ever, because any investor,

1258
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:37,123
whether they're saving for
retirement or it's through a

1259
00:39:37,123 --> 00:39:38,201
pension plan, everybody gets
impacted.

1260
00:39:38,101 --> 00:39:40,287
So let's just call it what it is.

1261
00:39:40,287 --> 00:39:42,413
And it's a tax increase and it's

1262
00:39:42,513 --> 00:39:43,427
going to have implications.

1263
00:39:43,427 --> 00:39:45,118
And ideally, if you're going to

1264
00:39:45,118 --> 00:39:48,030
roll it out, make it simple, give
time for people to plan around it

1265
00:39:48,030 --> 00:39:50,821
and then roll it out and own it.

1266
00:39:50,921 --> 00:39:52,186
But, you know, that's not really

1267
00:39:52,186 --> 00:39:54,174
how politicians work and I'm not a
politician.

1268
00:39:54,174 --> 00:39:57,580
I guess what policy changes would
you make or like any current

1269
00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:01,403
solutions for current problems?
What would you do over the next

1270
00:40:01,403 --> 00:40:04,694
six to 12 months, whether that's
Bank of Canada overnight rate or,

1271
00:40:04,694 --> 00:40:06,746
you know, any kind of taxation
legislation or business investment

1272
00:40:06,746 --> 00:40:08,020
opportunities?
Like what would you do differently

1273
00:40:08,020 --> 00:40:10,267
right now?
If we were just talking about the

1274
00:40:10,267 --> 00:40:12,575
tax piece, I'd point to an
economist out of Alberta who's

1275
00:40:12,575 --> 00:40:15,457
done work on the marginal cost of
public funds, which is effectively

1276
00:40:15,457 --> 00:40:19,668
saying how many dollars does it
take to collect dollars of tax

1277
00:40:19,668 --> 00:40:24,051
based on the type of tax?
The work they've done there just

1278
00:40:24,051 --> 00:40:26,305
shows that some taxes are
incredibly efficient and some

1279
00:40:26,205 --> 00:40:28,605
taxes are incredibly inefficient,
costly and boondoggles, but

1280
00:40:28,605 --> 00:40:31,977
politically easier to implement
than some of those ones that are

1281
00:40:31,977 --> 00:40:32,459
more effective.

1282
00:40:32,559 --> 00:40:34,940
And I'd point to that and say,

1283
00:40:34,940 --> 00:40:36,184
there's your answer.

1284
00:40:36,184 --> 00:40:38,151
Brave politicians would just pick

1285
00:40:38,051 --> 00:40:41,806
the tax that is the cheapest way
to get the money in the Brave one

1286
00:40:41,806 --> 00:40:43,005
that's most politically easy to
accomplish.

1287
00:40:43,005 --> 00:40:46,467
But from a policy perspective, I
think we're facing a lot of

1288
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:50,473
challenges that take a lot of deep
thought in how you resolve them.

1289
00:40:50,340 --> 00:40:51,372
We need more investment in Canada
in business.

1290
00:40:51,372 --> 00:40:53,885
We need more competition in
certain industries, for sure.

1291
00:40:53,785 --> 00:40:54,854
There's the policy rate, as I
talked about.

1292
00:40:54,854 --> 00:40:57,728
And one of the biggest things we
all know about is supply of

1293
00:40:57,728 --> 00:40:59,820
housing, right?
Supply of housing is one of the

1294
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:01,012
biggest things.

1295
00:41:00,912 --> 00:41:03,620
Back in the 80s, there was that

1296
00:41:03,620 --> 00:41:06,010
federal program that created a lot
of affordable housing units.

1297
00:41:06,010 --> 00:41:08,880
And you can see those buildings up
in the big cities that were built

1298
00:41:10,180 --> 00:41:11,741
around that time, those
apartments, the row houses.

1299
00:41:11,741 --> 00:41:15,976
That money went away, I believe,
in the early 90s, if I'm not

1300
00:41:15,976 --> 00:41:16,274
mistaken.

1301
00:41:16,274 --> 00:41:18,641
I'm not saying that that needs to

1302
00:41:18,641 --> 00:41:19,243
come back.

1303
00:41:19,243 --> 00:41:20,917
But it's funny if you look back

1304
00:41:20,917 --> 00:41:24,265
over history and say, you know,
our population kept growing, and

1305
00:41:24,265 --> 00:41:26,475
the amount of building that
happened did not move at the same

1306
00:41:26,475 --> 00:41:26,680
pace.

1307
00:41:26,780 --> 00:41:28,580
And that's been going on now for

1308
00:41:28,580 --> 00:41:28,715
decades.

1309
00:41:28,715 --> 00:41:29,809
So, you know, bold plans actually

1310
00:41:29,809 --> 00:41:32,524
involve putting some money into
that or dealing with some of the

1311
00:41:32,524 --> 00:41:36,684
costs that get in the way or some
of the red tape that gets in the

1312
00:41:36,584 --> 00:41:39,080
way and slows things down.

1313
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,326
I'm all for doing things right.

1314
00:41:41,326 --> 00:41:44,063
I don't want people living in
slums or dangerous housing.

1315
00:41:44,063 --> 00:41:44,780
That's not okay.

1316
00:41:44,820 --> 00:41:45,136
But there's a point where we've

1317
00:41:44,942 --> 00:41:45,294
also got to ask the question of,
are we doing enough to get people

1318
00:41:45,260 --> 00:41:45,459
housed?
Back to another beef of mine with

1319
00:41:45,425 --> 00:41:45,600
the Bank of Canada narrative on
inflation.

1320
00:41:45,568 --> 00:41:47,185
When you increase rates, you're
trying to reduce demand.

1321
00:41:47,185 --> 00:41:50,420
If where you're seeing inflation
is related to things that people

1322
00:41:50,420 --> 00:41:53,696
need, like food and filter, what
are you going to do to reduce

1323
00:41:53,696 --> 00:41:54,812
demand?
Do people need to consume fewer

1324
00:41:55,184 --> 00:41:56,368
calories?
The government's investing in

1325
00:41:56,368 --> 00:41:56,589
Ozempic.

1326
00:41:56,589 --> 00:41:58,353
That's what's going on.

1327
00:41:58,353 --> 00:42:01,220
Well, when you think about it,
though, it's like, okay, they can

1328
00:42:01,220 --> 00:42:01,752
make different choices.

1329
00:42:01,852 --> 00:42:04,080
I can stop buying this healthy

1330
00:42:04,180 --> 00:42:06,142
food and start buying cheaper,
less healthy food.

1331
00:42:06,142 --> 00:42:09,600
And that's how I can move my can I
can underhouse myself and my

1332
00:42:09,600 --> 00:42:09,809
family.

1333
00:42:09,909 --> 00:42:11,426
That's another choice I can make.

1334
00:42:11,426 --> 00:42:14,391
But I would argue, and I will, and
I have up and down that that does

1335
00:42:14,486 --> 00:42:15,459
not reduce the demand.

1336
00:42:15,459 --> 00:42:16,434
It just reduces people's ability

1337
00:42:16,434 --> 00:42:17,741
to get what they want.

1338
00:42:17,741 --> 00:42:19,154
That doesn't reduce demand when

1339
00:42:19,154 --> 00:42:22,717
you're talking about essentials,
and so we've got to do more, I

1340
00:42:22,717 --> 00:42:26,254
think, in addressing that and
addressing the supply in those

1341
00:42:26,254 --> 00:42:26,440
areas.

1342
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:29,228
And that's tough because it's a

1343
00:42:29,128 --> 00:42:29,654
big country.

1344
00:42:29,654 --> 00:42:31,232
Like, geographically, this is

1345
00:42:31,232 --> 00:42:33,885
almost 40 million people over the
second largest nation in the

1346
00:42:33,785 --> 00:42:33,969
world.

1347
00:42:33,969 --> 00:42:35,195
Like, we are sparsely populated.

1348
00:42:35,195 --> 00:42:39,120
Things are going to be more
expensive for us than for other

1349
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:39,480
countries.

1350
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:41,982
But we also have to be willing to

1351
00:42:41,882 --> 00:42:45,442
solve these problems like we have
in the So on a related note, but

1352
00:42:45,442 --> 00:42:49,068
also completely out of left field,
is there an economic case for the

1353
00:42:49,068 --> 00:42:50,723
level of immigration that we've
been having?

1354
00:42:50,623 --> 00:42:53,926
I feel like we have all this
immigration and I can't figure out

1355
00:42:53,926 --> 00:42:55,506
who was asking for this to happen,
right?

1356
00:42:55,506 --> 00:42:57,294
I don't understand why these
decisions were made.

1357
00:42:57,294 --> 00:43:02,003
You started hearing grumblings
from this, from like kind of the

1358
00:43:02,003 --> 00:43:05,183
right-wing political spectrum of
all this immigration, and you

1359
00:43:05,183 --> 00:43:08,555
don't really think anything of it.

1360
00:43:08,555 --> 00:43:10,205
And then you start to realize, why

1361
00:43:10,205 --> 00:43:12,131
did we balloon our immigration so
much?

1362
00:43:12,131 --> 00:43:14,471
Like, is there an economic case
for this?

1363
00:43:14,371 --> 00:43:16,514
in the long term, there is.

1364
00:43:16,514 --> 00:43:17,086
Absolutely.

1365
00:43:17,086 --> 00:43:19,518
We're not replacing our population
internally.

1366
00:43:19,518 --> 00:43:20,403
We just aren't.

1367
00:43:20,403 --> 00:43:21,912
You know, it's a decline in

1368
00:43:21,898 --> 00:43:22,223
population.

1369
00:43:22,223 --> 00:43:23,385
So we need immigration if we're

1370
00:43:23,385 --> 00:43:25,219
going to try to continue to grow
as a nation.

1371
00:43:25,219 --> 00:43:28,432
You know, as soon as you want to
grow us, and that's where

1372
00:43:28,432 --> 00:43:30,930
economically it's easier on
everybody if we do continue to

1373
00:43:30,930 --> 00:43:31,122
grow.

1374
00:43:31,122 --> 00:43:32,147
So that part's essential, the

1375
00:43:32,147 --> 00:43:35,020
timing of it and how much, because
that was record immigration.

1376
00:43:35,020 --> 00:43:37,005
I that we totally need
immigration.

1377
00:43:37,005 --> 00:43:39,299
I'm just wondering about the
numbers.

1378
00:43:39,199 --> 00:43:42,896
Yeah, the numbers were record
high, and they've already made it

1379
00:43:42,896 --> 00:43:45,365
clear that the anticipated numbers
over the coming two years are

1380
00:43:45,365 --> 00:43:47,175
going to be far lower than that.

1381
00:43:47,075 --> 00:43:49,245
I don't know why, and I didn't dig

1382
00:43:49,245 --> 00:43:50,287
into it, but it's interesting.

1383
00:43:50,287 --> 00:43:52,024
Like if I'm looking at a business

1384
00:43:52,024 --> 00:43:56,530
level, you know, there's a lot of
clients I work with, they're still

1385
00:43:56,530 --> 00:43:58,922
struggling to find the right type
of people.

1386
00:43:58,922 --> 00:43:59,221
Right.

1387
00:43:59,221 --> 00:44:00,482
And so, you know, in the

1388
00:44:00,482 --> 00:44:01,953
manufacturing industry, they're
looking at immigrants because they

1389
00:44:01,953 --> 00:44:04,169
can't find enough people locally
who want to work.

1390
00:44:04,169 --> 00:44:07,988
It's interesting because as you
think about it, it kind of comes

1391
00:44:07,888 --> 00:44:08,063
full circle.

1392
00:44:08,063 --> 00:44:09,604
They're not finding enough people

1393
00:44:09,604 --> 00:44:12,058
locally who want to work those
jobs, given how expensive it is to

1394
00:44:12,058 --> 00:44:12,422
live here.

1395
00:44:12,422 --> 00:44:14,262
So if you don't already live here,

1396
00:44:14,162 --> 00:44:17,182
really hard to make a case to move
somebody from say Alberta or

1397
00:44:17,182 --> 00:44:19,090
Saskatchewan into really a place
with not enough inventory of

1398
00:44:19,090 --> 00:44:21,653
supply for them, and then pay less
than what they would get in

1399
00:44:21,753 --> 00:44:22,915
Alberta or Saskatchewan.

1400
00:44:22,815 --> 00:44:24,033
So where they're finding people

1401
00:44:24,033 --> 00:44:26,845
who are willing to do that, at
least in clients I'm dealing with,

1402
00:44:26,745 --> 00:44:28,239
is they're finding people coming
in from overseas.

1403
00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:28,460
Yeah.

1404
00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:29,975
I mean, it's a pretty unfair ask

1405
00:44:29,975 --> 00:44:33,679
as well, bring people in from
overseas and then put them in an

1406
00:44:33,679 --> 00:44:34,561
environment that is also
unaffordable.

1407
00:44:34,561 --> 00:44:34,761
Yeah.

1408
00:44:34,747 --> 00:44:35,675
And then perpetuate the problem,

1409
00:44:35,675 --> 00:44:38,363
which is where if you look at the
immigration levels over 2023,

1410
00:44:38,363 --> 00:44:43,069
supply not being what it needed to
be even before that, you get this

1411
00:44:43,069 --> 00:44:45,402
sudden surge in demand with an
increase not suitable for the

1412
00:44:45,402 --> 00:44:46,738
increase in population, you're
going to run into problems.

1413
00:44:46,738 --> 00:44:48,687
But I think that's where it's more
complicated than just saying

1414
00:44:48,687 --> 00:44:49,915
overall immigration is too high.

1415
00:44:49,915 --> 00:44:52,011
The question I think you're asking

1416
00:44:52,011 --> 00:44:56,177
is the right one is who's asking
for more people and is that

1417
00:44:56,177 --> 00:44:57,619
overall a benefit?
I think one of the questions

1418
00:44:57,619 --> 00:45:00,547
that's now become really apparent
is, okay, we need more people and

1419
00:45:00,547 --> 00:45:01,715
places for them to live.

1420
00:45:01,715 --> 00:45:01,852
Yeah.

1421
00:45:01,852 --> 00:45:05,957
Like we're bringing in carpenters
to build houses, but we have

1422
00:45:05,957 --> 00:45:08,935
nowhere for the carpenters to live
while they're building houses.

1423
00:45:08,935 --> 00:45:11,423
Well, I mean, the voting
demographic probably supported it,

1424
00:45:11,423 --> 00:45:12,808
right?
You bring in that type of

1425
00:45:12,808 --> 00:45:14,525
demographic that's going to
immigrate to a new country.

1426
00:45:14,525 --> 00:45:17,571
The liberal party is probably
going to win them as voters.

1427
00:45:17,571 --> 00:45:18,903
I don't think so.

1428
00:45:18,803 --> 00:45:19,876
I don't agree with that.

1429
00:45:19,876 --> 00:45:22,848
No. I think they'd probably go NDP
if they're going anything, if they

1430
00:45:22,848 --> 00:45:24,235
even vote at all.

1431
00:45:24,235 --> 00:45:24,433
Okay.

1432
00:45:24,433 --> 00:45:27,344
We need to find some data on that.

1433
00:45:27,344 --> 00:45:27,807
I would think.

1434
00:45:27,807 --> 00:45:29,263
Honestly, that's based on nothing.

1435
00:45:29,263 --> 00:45:32,077
Yeah, that's not based on data at

1436
00:45:32,077 --> 00:45:32,502
all.

1437
00:45:32,502 --> 00:45:33,775
Well, we to ask another question,

1438
00:45:33,875 --> 00:45:36,040
which is when are they going to be
eligible to vote?

1439
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:36,271
Exactly.

1440
00:45:36,271 --> 00:45:38,174
A lot of people aren't going to be

1441
00:45:38,174 --> 00:45:39,442
eligible right away.

1442
00:45:39,442 --> 00:45:41,469
And then we are seeing shifts in

1443
00:45:41,469 --> 00:45:42,373
voting demographics.

1444
00:45:42,373 --> 00:45:45,085
And are constantly things going on

1445
00:45:45,085 --> 00:45:47,075
in the US where the traditional
lines are getting bent.

1446
00:45:47,075 --> 00:45:49,478
We'll probably see that more in
Canada.

1447
00:45:49,478 --> 00:45:51,670
I don't even know that that's the
decision.

1448
00:45:51,670 --> 00:45:54,007
I don't even know if it's a
political decision.

1449
00:45:54,007 --> 00:45:57,307
It's one of those things that
somebody's going to have to do a

1450
00:45:57,307 --> 00:46:00,420
post-mortem on and be like, I
don't think it was from on high.

1451
00:46:00,420 --> 00:46:03,305
I think it was from within
Immigration Canada there that they

1452
00:46:03,305 --> 00:46:06,267
had some numbers and some targets
and some asks and it just

1453
00:46:06,267 --> 00:46:06,449
happened.

1454
00:46:06,752 --> 00:46:08,206
And then all of a sudden it's

1455
00:46:08,206 --> 00:46:09,720
like, oh, wow, that Oops.

1456
00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:11,959
That's exactly how I feel is that

1457
00:46:11,959 --> 00:46:14,070
I feel like it wasn't the
decision.

1458
00:46:14,070 --> 00:46:15,663
It just happened because it
doesn't make sense.

1459
00:46:15,663 --> 00:46:18,176
We're not the US where the
immigration is just so political.

1460
00:46:18,176 --> 00:46:20,145
We're generally not a racist
country in that way.

1461
00:46:20,145 --> 00:46:22,766
We don't have that same kind of
level of political discourse.

1462
00:46:22,849 --> 00:46:25,229
but now that the numbers spike so
high, it's just an odd question.

1463
00:46:25,295 --> 00:46:27,586
Like who wanted it like that?
I don't even think Trudeau wanted

1464
00:46:27,586 --> 00:46:28,124
it like that.

1465
00:46:28,224 --> 00:46:30,114
You know, like I just think it

1466
00:46:30,114 --> 00:46:30,491
just happened.

1467
00:46:30,491 --> 00:46:31,429
I don't know.

1468
00:46:31,429 --> 00:46:34,311
It's just been interesting to
watch over the last year, that

1469
00:46:34,411 --> 00:46:34,595
subject.

1470
00:46:34,595 --> 00:46:37,539
I just wanted to know your opinion

1471
00:46:37,439 --> 00:46:40,161
on the economic We'll probably run
into our wrap up questions here.

1472
00:46:40,161 --> 00:46:42,474
One question I wanted to ask
before that though, is, you know,

1473
00:46:42,474 --> 00:46:43,775
obviously analyzing businesses and
giving suggestions to businesses.

1474
00:46:43,775 --> 00:46:45,841
If you were just purely like an
angel investor, what businesses

1475
00:46:45,841 --> 00:46:47,850
would you be investing in right
now?

1476
00:46:47,850 --> 00:46:50,591
What are the most profitable?
Where do you see the most

1477
00:46:50,591 --> 00:46:51,481
opportunity geographically or just
industry sectors?

1478
00:46:51,581 --> 00:46:53,984
Industry sector-wise, I'd probably
be looking at energy transmission

1479
00:46:53,946 --> 00:46:55,061
as a major area.

1480
00:46:54,961 --> 00:46:56,886
If you look at Canada and the

1481
00:46:56,786 --> 00:46:58,365
United States, our energy
infrastructure is way undersized

1482
00:46:58,365 --> 00:47:00,504
for current and future demand and
expected growth, both in

1483
00:47:00,485 --> 00:47:01,387
population and use of energy.

1484
00:47:01,387 --> 00:47:02,354
You know, hook up more electric

1485
00:47:02,334 --> 00:47:05,186
cars to the grid, we're going to
need more resilient transmission

1486
00:47:05,286 --> 00:47:05,479
infrastructure.

1487
00:47:05,379 --> 00:47:06,700
So there's that.

1488
00:47:06,600 --> 00:47:09,248
There's probably other special
energy projects along that that I

1489
00:47:09,348 --> 00:47:10,967
think are lower risk, high return
that people might be looking at.

1490
00:47:10,948 --> 00:47:14,001
It's a tough area because you also
need a lot of people involved in

1491
00:47:13,901 --> 00:47:14,035
that.

1492
00:47:14,035 --> 00:47:17,748
So it's a long slog to invest and

1493
00:47:17,748 --> 00:47:19,969
train and develop the growth of
what's needed there.

1494
00:47:19,969 --> 00:47:22,028
But I do see that as a huge
opportunity.

1495
00:47:22,028 --> 00:47:23,740
But I also, you know, just
generally when I'm thinking about

1496
00:47:23,740 --> 00:47:26,592
businesses, I think there's a lot
of what would otherwise seem like

1497
00:47:26,592 --> 00:47:28,401
very boring, run-of-the-mill
businesses that are just really

1498
00:47:28,301 --> 00:47:29,687
good at delivering on what they
do.

1499
00:47:29,787 --> 00:47:31,857
And they create a lot of value for
their customers.

1500
00:47:31,857 --> 00:47:34,533
And in return, they get healthy
profits consistently.

1501
00:47:34,533 --> 00:47:35,649
Nothing exciting, nothing flashy.

1502
00:47:35,649 --> 00:47:37,462
You'll find these kind of

1503
00:47:37,462 --> 00:47:40,060
scattered around the Okanagan all
across BC and all over North

1504
00:47:40,060 --> 00:47:42,600
America where, hey, we're the
place that manufactures this one

1505
00:47:42,600 --> 00:47:45,007
little thing that is part of this
other big process that everybody

1506
00:47:45,007 --> 00:47:46,703
needs everywhere, but nobody ever
thinks about.

1507
00:47:46,703 --> 00:47:49,160
And we're the ones who do it.

1508
00:47:49,260 --> 00:47:50,780
And we do it really, really well.

1509
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:51,380
Right on.

1510
00:47:51,380 --> 00:47:52,100
Yeah, that's awesome.

1511
00:47:52,100 --> 00:47:52,580
Okay.

1512
00:47:52,580 --> 00:47:53,540
Going into our wrap-up questions

1513
00:47:53,540 --> 00:47:57,284
then, if you could buy one
property in the Okanagan in the

1514
00:47:57,384 --> 00:47:59,111
next 12 months, what it be?
Probably something near the

1515
00:47:59,111 --> 00:48:01,897
central city with a decent sized
property, small acreage.

1516
00:48:01,897 --> 00:48:05,356
I know this is like, okay, wait,
city and acreage, but there's some

1517
00:48:05,356 --> 00:48:08,210
of those really beautiful
properties out there kind of, you

1518
00:48:08,210 --> 00:48:12,099
know, in around the Springfield
and the mall area and out in by

1519
00:48:12,099 --> 00:48:12,902
the parks there.

1520
00:48:12,902 --> 00:48:13,920
Yeah, they're beautiful.

1521
00:48:13,920 --> 00:48:14,456
They're nice.

1522
00:48:14,456 --> 00:48:16,194
My daughter's into riding horses.

1523
00:48:16,094 --> 00:48:16,904
Not my choice.

1524
00:48:16,904 --> 00:48:19,062
My wife was a rider and next thing

1525
00:48:19,062 --> 00:48:22,495
you know, here she she's is,
riding horses not my choice my

1526
00:48:22,495 --> 00:48:26,995
wife was a rider and you know next
thing you know here she is she's

1527
00:48:26,995 --> 00:48:30,589
riding horses you know honestly
i'd probably buy some beehives i'd

1528
00:48:30,489 --> 00:48:34,824
be tending to some bees in my off
time and we may put in a little

1529
00:48:34,824 --> 00:48:37,074
batting cage on the side somewhere
thought about this this is

1530
00:48:37,074 --> 00:48:40,407
fantastic that would be an awesome
place to have i have friends that

1531
00:48:40,407 --> 00:48:44,070
are beekeepers and they have a lot
of yeah all scott if you could

1532
00:48:44,070 --> 00:48:47,470
give your 20 year old self any
piece of advice what would be take

1533
00:48:47,420 --> 00:48:49,976
your time yeah you know pushing
too hard for change creates a lot

1534
00:48:49,976 --> 00:48:53,238
of resistance so turn it into a
journey rather than a race it do

1535
00:48:53,238 --> 00:48:57,081
you have a favorite charity or how
do you give back in of charities i

1536
00:48:57,081 --> 00:48:59,537
tend to mix that around a bit
usually a lot of local

1537
00:48:59,537 --> 00:49:01,553
organizations you know the food
bank shelters but i'd say the

1538
00:49:01,553 --> 00:49:03,756
bigger way that i give back is
usually my time volunteering so

1539
00:49:03,756 --> 00:49:07,380
i'm a treasurer on the greater
west side board of trade in the

1540
00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:10,035
past I've done work with community
futures and coaching baseball I

1541
00:49:10,035 --> 00:49:12,567
have a blast coaching baseball
it's really fun to develop the

1542
00:49:12,549 --> 00:49:15,590
kids and just watch them go on
that journey and sometimes I have

1543
00:49:15,577 --> 00:49:17,678
too much fun one of the kids
knocked my tooth out yesterday or

1544
00:49:17,678 --> 00:49:20,405
half of the tooth so I got that
repaired this morning oh my god I

1545
00:49:20,305 --> 00:49:22,975
don't see nothing yeah it looks
good now my dentist now he got me

1546
00:49:22,975 --> 00:49:27,143
fixed up at seven this morning and
there go but uh yeah i love

1547
00:49:27,143 --> 00:49:30,358
baseball like a follow swing bat
throw or a ball or what how did it

1548
00:49:30,358 --> 00:49:33,110
no even till he's probably the
tallest kid they're eight year

1549
00:49:33,110 --> 00:49:36,280
olds right and he's one of the
tallest kids in the team he clubs

1550
00:49:36,280 --> 00:49:39,960
the ball deep into the outfield
and we had this guy out there

1551
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:44,146
who's just hurling the ball in
like he's got heck of an arm he's

1552
00:49:44,146 --> 00:49:47,431
actually one of the smaller kids
in the team but he's tucking this

1553
00:49:47,431 --> 00:49:50,380
ball in and i'm pitching the ball
and then kind of covering home

1554
00:49:50,380 --> 00:49:53,660
plate and i caught his throw and i
just turned to tag as the guy was

1555
00:49:53,660 --> 00:49:55,588
going home and forgot that he's
like a foot taller than everybody

1556
00:49:55,561 --> 00:49:58,351
else so i stuck my glove out
turned my head over and down and

1557
00:49:58,351 --> 00:49:59,866
just put my face right into his
helmet.

1558
00:49:59,866 --> 00:50:03,344
All the parents heard the crack
and everybody just stopped dead in

1559
00:50:03,344 --> 00:50:04,658
their tracks and All a thing.

1560
00:50:04,658 --> 00:50:06,819
But yeah, I was like, Oh wow.

1561
00:50:06,819 --> 00:50:11,054
I made it all the way through my
youth playing baseball and rugby

1562
00:50:11,054 --> 00:50:13,029
and never had this happen.

1563
00:50:13,029 --> 00:50:14,740
And I'm coaching eight year olds

1564
00:50:14,740 --> 00:50:20,012
and I'm going to got a plan until
a helmet hits a square in the

1565
00:50:20,012 --> 00:50:20,155
face.

1566
00:50:20,155 --> 00:50:22,552
I All right, Scott.

1567
00:50:22,652 --> 00:50:26,945
How can Taylor and I or our
audience or listener help you?

1568
00:50:27,045 --> 00:50:29,061
Well, I'd say, you know, pay
attention on LinkedIn.

1569
00:50:29,061 --> 00:50:33,014
I'm usually writing about things
that are of interest to

1570
00:50:33,014 --> 00:50:33,671
businesses, economics.

1571
00:50:33,671 --> 00:50:35,743
You can find me there.

1572
00:50:35,643 --> 00:50:37,220
Our firm, Beat and Reddick Waters.

1573
00:50:37,320 --> 00:50:39,191
You'll see us on LinkedIn or find

1574
00:50:39,191 --> 00:50:39,729
our website, beatandreddick.com.

1575
00:50:39,829 --> 00:50:41,222
So we're always around to have

1576
00:50:41,222 --> 00:50:42,476
these discussions.

1577
00:50:42,576 --> 00:50:46,074
And I don't know, we have a lot of

1578
00:50:46,074 --> 00:50:49,320
fun in our work and trying to
change the world one piece at a

1579
00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:49,645
time.

1580
00:50:49,645 --> 00:50:50,525
I love it.

1581
00:50:50,425 --> 00:50:50,685
Awesome.

1582
00:50:50,685 --> 00:50:51,985
You did a great job.

1583
00:50:51,985 --> 00:50:52,245
Yeah.

1584
00:50:52,245 --> 00:50:53,285
Thanks so much for the

1585
00:50:53,285 --> 00:50:53,805
conversation.

1586
00:50:53,805 --> 00:50:55,147
to change the world a quarter

1587
00:50:55,147 --> 00:50:57,239
point at a time with these
interest rates.

1588
00:50:57,239 --> 00:50:57,448
Right.

1589
00:50:57,448 --> 00:50:59,361
Or a quarter tooth, whichever.

1590
00:50:59,261 --> 00:50:59,470
exactly.

1591
00:50:59,470 --> 00:51:01,241
I it well yeah i appreciate it and

1592
00:51:01,141 --> 00:51:04,776
we'll have you back on soon but at
this point projection is quarter

1593
00:51:04,676 --> 00:51:06,950
point reduction over the next two
announcements that's what we're

1594
00:51:06,950 --> 00:51:12,134
sticking to 50 50 to 50 50 chance
that's where we're at 50 50 chance

1595
00:51:12,134 --> 00:51:16,327
for each one 80 that one of them
we're at 50 50 yeah okay at odds i

1596
00:51:16,227 --> 00:51:21,098
like it too okay thanks man all
right appreciate it thanks a lot

1597
00:51:21,098 --> 00:51:23,292
take care At least I like Okay.

1598
00:51:23,292 --> 00:51:24,169
those I like one.

1599
00:51:24,169 --> 00:51:24,678
it odds.

1600
00:51:24,678 --> 00:51:25,040
man.

1601
00:51:25,140 --> 00:51:25,560
too.

1602
00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:25,840
Okay.

1603
00:51:25,740 --> 00:51:26,650
Thanks, All right.

1604
00:51:26,650 --> 00:51:28,680
Thanks for having me on.

1605
00:51:28,680 --> 00:51:29,730
Thanks a lot, Scott.

1606
00:51:29,730 --> 00:51:30,150
Take care.