Episode 123: Matt and Taylor are joined by Brendon Ogmundson.
Brendon is the Chief Economist at BCREA (BC Real Estate Association) from Vancouver, BC, who's specializes in housing market analysis and macroeconomic forecasting, and is a member of the BC Ministry of Finance’s Economic Forecast Council. Brendon was also recently named one of the most influential economists in BC by Business in Vancouver.
Brendon is here to discuss:
→ How his predictions held up from his last appearance a year ago.
→ Where variable & fixed interest rates are heading in the next 6 to 12 months, the factors that are contributing to them, and why inflation will always overrule GDP.
→ The a slow housing start to 2026, where we are at currently with housing supply and inventory, demand, and overall affordability, and the overall uncertainty of the market.
→ The impact of BC losing 60,000 private sector jobs so far in 2026, and how he created a "vibes index" to quantify how consumer sentiment is driving economic behaviour.
→ Kelowna's unique population demographic combination of the young Gen Z & Millennials with aging Boomers, and the impact the missing middle of housing has on them.
→ Which generation actually had it the worst when it comes to housing, the economy, and affordability - Boomers, Gen X, Millenials, or Gen Z.
→ How the federal immigration policy has chased away the demand for rentals with the exodus of 80,000 non-permanent residents in BC 2025, while at the same time pushing to complete the most purpose-built rentals we have in decades, and the disparity in the supply of rental vs owner units.
→ If investors should be buying all these newly completed condos in Kelowna, and what markets he would look at today if he were investing in real estate.
→ If the Cowichan ruling has actually impacted BC from a data standpoint, or if it is currently more word-of-mouth and adding to overall uncertainty.
→ How closing the Strait of Hormuz is affecting Canada and the oil industry - why this is a "profit windfall" and not demand driven, meaning it won't lead to more production, how American companies own most of Canadian oil companies anyways so it won't benefit us, and why gas prices swing so much day to day.
Brendon's 1st Appearance in Episode 35: https://www.kelownarealestatepodcast.com/35-brendon-ogmundson/
Brendon's 2nd Appearance in Episode 61: https://www.kelownarealestatepodcast.com/61-brendon-ogmundson/
Brendon's 3rd Appearance in Episode 93: https://www.kelownarealestatepodcast.com/93-brendon-ogmundson/
BCREA Website: https://www.bcrea.bc.ca
Brendon Ogmundson's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brendon-ogmundson-cfa-69621222/
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CHAPTERS
00:00 Cold Open
4:14 Today's Guest: Brendon Ogmundson
5:20 Where We Were a Year Ago
6:35 Slow Start to 2026 with Home Sales
9:45 Kelowna's Unique Demographics & Missing Middle Housing
12:56 Where Interest Rates are Heading in the Next 6-12 Months
20:26 Inflation Overrules GDP
20:57 Will Canada Need to Produce More Oil with the Strait of Hormuz Closure?
22:32 Why Gas Prices Swing So Much
23:37 Housing Supply, Demand, & Affordability
27:28 Where Brendon Would Buy Real Estate Today
29:05 The Impact of Negative Immigration on Rentals, Vacancy Rates, & Housing Demand
32:22 Has the Cowichan Ruling Affected Anything?
33:22 How Vibes Affect Home Sales
37:24 Which Generation Has Had it the Worst
40:32 Should Investors Be Buying Condos?
45:14 Wrap-Up
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CONNECT WITH THE SHOW
🎙️ Kelowna Real Estate Podcast: https://www.kelownarealestatepodcast.com
📺 Kelowna Real Estate Podcast YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@KelownaRealEstatePodcast
📸 Kelowna Real Estate Podcast Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/kelownarealestatepodcast/
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CONNECT WITH MATT
🌎 Matt Glen's Website: https://www.venturecommercial.ca/our-team/matt-glen
📬 Matt Glen's Email: matt.glen@venturecommercial.ca
📸 Matt Glen's Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/realmattglen/
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CONNECT WITH TAYLOR
🌎 Taylor Atkinson's Website: https://www.venturemortgages.com
📬 Taylor Atkinson's Email: taylor@venturemortgages.com
📸 Taylor Atkinson's Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/venturemortgages/
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